Strong to severe storm chances Monday evening into Tuesday – Nick
Good late Sunday evening/early Monday morning, everyone. Underneath partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies, we had most areas end the weekend on a warm note. After highs in the upper 70s on Saturday, we went from a mild start in the lower 60s this morning back to highs back in the upper 70s.
While we did see some scattered light showers in some areas during the morning hours, we saw some scattered t-storms confined to areas along and east of US 69 as we went through the afternoon and evening hours. Right along the I-49 corridor, that’s where radar estimates have picked up on 0.2″ of average rainfall. While some areas from Joplin on south saw less than that, areas north of Joplin (especially around Nevada and northeastern Vernon County) saw quite a bit of rain in a short period of time. That led to some minor flash flooding in parts of Vernon County Sunday evening.
Looking at our weather setup, we’re in the process of having one storm system move on while we wait for the next one to work in. At the surface, you can see a weakening frontal system working across Arkansas and adjacent parts of the Deep South. That actually served as a focal point for severe weather for parts of Mississippi and Alabama for Sunday evening. To our west, the storms that fired up in western and central Kansas are all ahead of our next cold front on the way in.
At the jet stream level, the upper-level low that gave us scattered t-storms for our Sunday afternoon and evening is moving off to the east. That will allow the next upper low to come out of the Rockies and interact with our next cold front to give us another shot of t-storms for our Monday and Tuesday. Not only that, these two features could some areas a chance for strong to severe t-storms late Monday and into Tuesday.
For the rest of the overnight and into early Monday morning, the complex of storms out across central Kansas will be on a weakening trend as they continue to march to the east. With that said, there’s a slim chance a couple of those showers and t-storms could clip some of our southeast Kansas communities before sunrise. If they can hold together and move in, they shouldn’t be strong or severe.
Other than that slight chance for some pre-dawn rainfall, we’ll have partly to mostly cloudy skies in place as lows drop back between the upper 50s and 60° across the area.
Ahead of the cold front, we’ll have temperatures quickly warm up past sunrise. With some partly sunny skies returning by the noon hour, the air ahead of the front should allow temperatures to quickly climb into the lower to middle 70s as we get the afternoon started.
Most areas along and ahead of the front will have a warm Monday afternoon with highs topping out around 80°. Even if you’ll be behind the front Monday afternoon in our northern counties, you’ll still have a very mild to kind of warm afternoon with highs in the middle to upper 70s. We’ll be watching the cold front closely as it tracks through the area late Monday afternoon. If there’s enough forcing and enough moisture along the front to break through any pockets of warm air aloft, we could see some scattered t-storms develop late Monday afternoon after 3 or 4 o’clock.
Once the upper-level low coming out of the Rockies comes into play Monday evening, that’s when we’re expecting better chances for scattered t-storms to develop along and south of the I-44 corridor. This is also when our chances for some strong to severe t-storms really start to perk up as we head into Monday night.
We’ll continue to hold on to scattered rain and t-storms through the overnight as we work into our Tuesday morning.
With the t-storm chances from late Monday afternoon and Monday night into early Tuesday morning, we do run the risk of seeing some of those t-storms turn strong to severe. Our low severe threat seems to remain in place for areas along and south of I-44. If storms can develop by 4 or 5 PM on Monday, they could run the risk of bringing large hail, high wind gusts and heavy rainfall to some spots. If they can’t the storms for Monday evening and early Tuesday morning will certainly be the better chance for storms with wind, hail and heavy rain being our main issues.
Even as we see our severe threat shift out of here Tuesday morning, we’ll see temperatures turn quite cooler for Tuesday morning as we stay mostly cloudy with scattered rain to start the day. We’ll eventually see Tuesday morning lows drop into the upper 40s across much of the area.
Fortunately, the rain chances aren’t expected to last all day long. Once we get past Tuesday morning, the rain chances should be out of here as our skies turn partly sunny for the afternoon. By the time we hit mostly clear skies Tuesday evening, we’ll have highs rebound. However, it will be quite a bit cooler behind this storm system as daytime highs will only top out around 60° for much of the area.
We’ll also be thankful for the chance to dry out and clear out Tuesday afternoon because the rain and t-storm chances for late Monday and early Tuesday could add up. While expected rain amounts on average should range between half an inch and an inch in many places, any heavy pockets of rainfall we see could push some amounts close to 2 inches. We’ll need to watch these numbers closely to see if they could bring some minor flash flooding concerns for late Monday and early Tuesday.
Once that wave clears out, we’ll have a quiet start to our Wednesday and keep things fairly dry for much of the day. Under partly sunny skies, we’ll go from lows in the lower 40s to highs in the middle 60s for Wednesday afternoon. That will certainly be a cooler than normal day as we’ll sit on the milder side of the jet, but it will be a nice rebound for us.
For Wednesday evening and mainly Thursday morning, another developing wave riding along the jet will have the chance to bring in some scattered rain and t-storms for parts of the area. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies on the backside of that wave will keep highs in the middle 60s for our Thursday.
Once we get into the weekend, another upper-level low coming out of the Pacific wants to keep sending waves our way. Unfortunately, that wants to keep scattered t-storms in the forecast for Friday, Saturday and on Mother’s Day coming up next Sunday. Even with these rain chances in the forecast, we’ll see temperatures stay mild with highs in the middle 60s on Friday, lower 70s on Saturday and middle 70s on Sunday.
If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of May and much of June, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
May 10th-May 15th: We’ll keep an eye on a severe threat for Monday and Wednesday. The rest of the week looks pretty nice until thunderstorms return on Saturday.
May 23rd-May 29th: We’ll go from warm temperatures Sunday & Monday to a mild stretch for the middle of the week and back to warm temperatures by the weekend. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday through Tuesday, showers on Wednesday and another chance for severe weather on Saturday the 29th.
May 30th-June 5th: We’ll bounce between mild and warm temperatures to start the week before a mild stretch kicks in for Wednesday and Thursday. We should be warm for Friday and mild for Saturday. T-storms are possible for Sunday, Tuesday and Friday followed by rain chances on Saturday.
June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.
June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.
June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.