Latest updated blog – Watching more rain chances line up – Nick
While we stay warm to wrap up the weekend
Good Sunday morning, everyone. Unlike yesterday morning where we had to deal with strong to severe t-storms to start the day, we’re off to a calmer start this morning. The surface map below shows the cold front that helped bring in the t-storms yesterday off to our south. Behind it, high pressure is trying to build in from Iowa. However, another cold front is getting together across the northern Rockies and parts of the Pacific Northwest.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the upper-level low that also helped bring in the t-storms yesterday is scooting off into the Missouri Bootheel. While we continue to stay on the cooler side of the jet for today, we’re watching our next wave way out to our west. Neither one of the upper lows working into southern California and across western Canada will play a role in our weather. By late Sunday and into Monday, we’ll see a wave ride around the ridge in the Pacific and work into the country.
After our quiet and mild start this morning, we’ll have temperatures push into the upper 70s by the time the lunch hour rolls in.
As we continue through this afternoon, another quick wave will work in from the northwest and try to work together with partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s to spark a few isolated t-storms. Thankfully, any t-storms that do manage to pop up this afternoon will stay below severe levels.
After a few t-storms to start this evening out, most of us will stay quiet through the night before our next cold front and burst of upper-level energy work in. With partly to mostly cloudy skies sticking with us, we’ll keep temperatures mild as lows drop back into the upper 60s.
Both the approaching cold front and upper energy for Monday will be more than eager to send more scattered t-storms our way. The Future Track seems to suggest another complex of t-storms with some gusty wind speeds could track in late Monday morning and into Monday afternoon. If that scenario plays out, Monday could be another day where we could see highs quickly push into the middle to upper 80s in the morning with temperatures taking a downswing behind the storms. Regardless of how Monday plays out exactly, we’re expecting rain chances to kick back into gear while we stay warm.
Not only will the front stick around through the middle of next week to keep t-storm chances in the forecast, the upper low for early next week will slowly come out of the northern Rockies and dig into the Southern Plains by Tuesday. This setup looks as though Tuesday could be our best chance for widespread scattered t-storms under mostly cloudy skies. That should allow highs to only rise into the lower 80s across the area.
After we get through Wednesday with scattered t-storm chances once again, the upper low will start to work across eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas. While that starts to finally push the cold front off to our southeast, the upper low will keep partly sunny skies and the chance for a few isolated t-storms around. Highs will stay below normal with the area warming into the middle 80s.
Before we turn dry for next weekend, these rain chances on the way. If we play our cards right, we could have a range of rain amounts between an inch and 3 inches in total by the time the next cold front moves out of the picture.
If you’re curious as to how we look for much of September, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a great Sunday!
Long range forecast into September:
September 6th-12th: A warm start to the week for the Labor Day holiday weekend. Thunderstorms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures work in with this system for the middle of the week. Warm temperatures return late in the week with thunderstorm chances on Saturday.
September 13th-19th: A warm start but most of the week will be mild. Thunderstorm chances the first half of the week. Then mild and nice the rest of the week.
September 20th-26th: The first have of the week will be mild and nice. Warming up the second half of the week with thunderstorm chances by the weekend.