Latest updated blog – Warming up for Tuesday – Nick

Watching two systems over the next several days

Good early Tuesday morning, everyone. On the heels of our hot Sunday afternoon, it was nice to have fall roll back in to kick off the new work/school week. After Joplin Regional hit a new record high of 91° on Sunday, we dropped back into the upper 50s Monday morning before we saw highs bounce back into the middle 70s. While the cold front that passed through Monday morning didn’t bring anything in terms of moisture, it certainly brought fall back into the area.


The surface setup below shows an area of high pressure quickly passing through behind the cold front that continues to move off to the east. As the high scoots off to the east on Tuesday, it will bring back the southerly breeze to warm us back up. To our northwest, we see 2 cold fronts lining up. The first one stretching across the Northern Rockies will stay to our north. The cold front coming out of the northern Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska will play a role in our forecast by Thursday.


The upper level setup shows that the cold front won’t head our way until we get the upper low out of the Gulf of Alaska. Before that happens, the jet stream is going to start inching back to the north over the next few days and send us on a little warming trend.


Before we start warming up again for our Tuesday, we’ll keep quiet during the overnight and into the morning hours under clear skies and a returning light south breeze at 5-10 mph. With dry air still in place, this setup should mean everyone starts off on a cool note in the middle to upper 40s. Areas close to Joplin should start around 47°.


While the dry air mass and the light south breeze starts us off on a cool note this morning, the breeze will pick up out of the southwest at 5-15 mph (gusts near 20 mph) during the day. This, with sunny skies in place once again, means that we’ll waste no time warming back up. Not only will temperatures push into the lower 70s by the noon hour, we’ll be topping out in the upper 70s for afternoon highs today.


With clear skies still in place for tonight and Wednesday morning, we’ll have temperatures drop quite a bit once we get past sunset. With a south breeze at 5-15 mph throughout the night and into Wednesday morning, though, we’ll only drop back into the lower to middle 50s for lows.


With sunny skies once again for Wednesday and a southwest breeze at 15 to 25 mph (gusts near 30), we’ll trend warmer for the afternoon with highs eager to climb back into the middle 80s.


Before we get too warm, the cold front coming out of the Gulf of Alaska and the Northern Pacific will work in late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. The bad news is this front is looking like another dry front with no rain chances coming along for the ride. The good news is that this will bring fall back into the area with highs topping out in the middle 60s across the area.


Behind that cold front, we’re looking at a cold start to our Friday morning with lows dropping back into the upper 30s. Once we get past that cold start to the weekend, we’ll have highs in the lower to middle 60s on Friday and lower 70s for our Saturday. While both of those days look dry, look down below at the jet setup for next Sunday and Monday.


Another wave will push another frontal system our way for Sunday and Monday. While this could bring in the chance for a few showers on Sunday, early indications for next Monday show the system bringing in a better chance for scattered rain. Given how much of the area is in some stage of a drought, we need the rain. Doug has the rest of the month broken down for you with his long-range forecast below. Have a great Tuesday!


October 18th-24th: The week starts mild. With a system by the middle of the week and rain chances possible by the weekend, we’ll go from mild temperatures on Wednesday to a cool end to the week.

October 25th-31st: With the exception of rain chances on Thursday, the week is looking dry overall. We’ll start with cool temperatures before we turn mild for the middle of the week. By Friday and Halloween, we’ll stay dry as temperatures turn cool once again.