Latest updated blog – Warming up for Friday as we start to trend a bit drier – Nick

Watching other rain & t-storm chances down the road

Good late Thursday evening, everyone. With stubborn cloud cover and another day with scattered rain and some t-storms around, we kept temperatures cooler than normal across the area. You can see that clearly from the observations below at Joplin Regional Airport. After highs in the middle 70s on our Wednesday, we saw a high of 74° during the noon hour in Joplin. After a mild start in the upper 60s this morning, other areas could only manage highs in the lower to middle 70s today.


While the rain we picked up from late last night through today stayed mainly under half an inch, the rain that we’ve seen since last Friday has added up in some spots that it has actually resulted in some local rivers running a bit higher than usual. Flood warnings are out covering the Neosho River from Allen County down to Miami. In addition, flood warnings also cover the Little Osage, Osage and Marmaton in northern Vernon County. These rivers will crest at minor flood stages and fall as we continue through the weekend and into early next week. That’s why these river flood warning will start expiring between Friday morning and Monday evening.


For some spots, it would be nice to see some drier weather return as we head into the weekend. For those, the changing weather setup will allow that to happen over the next few days. At the surface, our stubborn stationary front washed away last night. Our next front to the northwest of us won’t come into play until the middle of next week. In the meantime, high pressure over the Northeast will actually keep a south and southeast wind in place for Friday and for this weekend.


Upstairs at the jet stream level, our stubborn upper-level low is finally lifting up into the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. Even though that shift will allow the upper-level ridge to our east to start building in, the flow of the jet stream is still grabbing some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and pulling it in our direction.


While we’re getting a break in the rain chances overnight, we’ll see some scattered showers try to sneak back in as the Friday AM drive gets underway. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will stay in place as lows only drop back into the upper 60s.


While some scattered showers will be possible to sneak back in by the AM drive, we’ll certainly have some scattered showers and a few t-storms around by the time we hit the noon hour. With a south wind at 5-15 mph (gusts near 20 at times), that will encourage temperatures to push into the lower 70s to start the afternoon out.


While scattered showers and t-storms will be possible once again for Friday afternoon, the upper-level ridge will start eating away at the expected coverage of these chances. With a little bit of drier air coming in and a few peaks of sun through our mostly cloudy skies, that should get highs back into the upper 70s across the area for Friday afternoon.


While the scattered showers will taper off during our Friday evening, one more push of moisture will start to bring another chance for scattered showers by sunrise Saturday morning. With that and mostly cloudy skies in place, we’ll start Saturday morning out with lows in the upper 60s.


Fortunately, these rain chances look to stay as just rain chances. Plus, these won’t be around for the whole day. As the upper-level ridge becomes a stronger influence on our weather setup, we’ll back things down to some scattered showers in our western counties by noon and a random shower still possible with partly sunny skies for the afternoon. With the returning sun, that should push highs back near 80° across the area. Any additional rain between Friday and Saturday shouldn’t amount to more than half an inch for most areas.


Looking beyond Saturday, we’ll enjoy mainly dry time as we wrap up this weekend and head into next Monday. While another upper-level low will cause some scattered rain and t-storms to our west, we can’t rule out a few random showers on Sunday and a stray t-storm on Monday. Regardless, most spots will be dry under partly sunny skies with highs around 80° for both days.


By Tuesday, things start to get active again. With one upper-level low lifting into the northern Great Lakes and another low working out of the Pacific Northwest, both will push our next cold front closer to the area. While we’ll stay warm with highs around 80°, the front will work together with some upper-level energy to bring t-storm chances back into the area. While the severe threat looks fairly low for Tuesday, we won’t rule out some strong t-storms as the front starts to approach.


For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level low to our northwest will continue to send waves of energy our way as our frontal system remains in place. While we’ll see highs in the lower 80s on Wednesday and middle 80s on Thursday, we’ll keep an eye on our t-storm chances for both of those days as they could turn strong to severe.


To see how we look to wrap up May and how June is looking, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Friday!


May 28th & May 29th: Chances for thunderstorms will continue. We’ll watch for severe weather chances as the holiday weekend gets going.  However, temperatures look great, mainly in the 80s.

May 30th-June 5th: A stormy holiday with a severe threat.  Warm with thunderstorm sticking around on Tuesday.  Cooling down a bit for the middle of the week and dry.  Warming up late in the week with thunderstorm chances once again.

June 6th-June 12th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Severe threat returns for Saturday.

June 13th-19th:  A warm week with thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.