Latest updated blog – Warming trend begins Wednesday – Nick

Still keeping an eye on rain chances on the way

Good Tuesday evening, everyone. Temperatures on our Tuesday turned out to be a bit interesting. After we saw highs only top out in the middle to upper 60s yesterday, we did drop back to a chilly start this morning with lows in the upper 50s. After the morning rain cleared out, your temperatures varied during the afternoon and depended on whether you got stuck under the cloud cover. Areas northwest of Joplin that saw some sunshine this afternoon actually saw highs push into the upper 60s and lower 70s during the afternoon. For areas that got stuck under cloudy skies for today, you had highs only top out in the middle 60s.


Speaking of the morning rain, it was actually rain that picked up yesterday afternoon and continued through the morning hours. Areas northwest of Joplin and I-44 only saw minor accumulations between a quarter and half an inch. Hop south and east of I-44, that’s where rainfall left behind between half an inch and 2.5″ leading to some flood warnings earlier today for parts of Barry and Lawrence counties.


Looking at our weather setup, we don’t have any immediate surface features driving our forecast. A front passing to our south continues to keep the better chances for rain and t-storms to our south. The center of low pressure will keep a light northeast breeze in place for tonight and a north breeze for our Wednesday.


Upstairs at the jet stream level, our stubborn upper-level low is still in control. However, we have it over the Kansas/Nebraska tonight as it continues its journey to the east and northeast. As long as it’s still around for our Wednesday, it’ll have another chance to bring some rain chances in for the day ahead.


Everyone will turn chilly for Wednesday morning under partly to mostly cloudy skies. While we’ll be dry to start the overnight, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a few showers try to pop up on the MO side by sunrise. Otherwise, lows will drop into the upper 50s once again.


While much of the morning will be dry, the upper-level low will still give us a chance for some scattered showers and a few t-storms during the afternoon. Fortunately, the skies will go from mostly cloudy at noon to partly sunny during the afternoon as the upper-level low continues to move to the east and northeast away from the region. Even with a light north breeze in place, that will lead to highs across the area to head back into the lower to middle 70s.


After a few isolated showers or t-storms early Wednesday evening, we’ll stay dry for the rest of the night with a calm breeze and partly cloudy skies in place. That will allow our mild Wednesday evening to turn into another chilly start for our Thursday with lows in the middle to upper 50s.


Thursday is looking pretty good for us. While I can’t rule out a stray shower during the afternoon, the vast majority of the area will be dry for Thursday with highs climbing back into the upper 70s.


Our warm Thursday and Friday will all be due to the upper-low moving on. That will allow a weak ridge to build in and push the jet stream back to our northeast. This will keep us partly sunny and mainly dry for Friday as highs push back near 80° across the region. While we stay mainly dry for Friday, look at the jet stream setup below for Friday. Another upper-level low will develop across western Texas.


Over the coming weekend, the jet stream will stretch back down to the south and grab the upper-level low to pull it in our direction. That will result in partly sunny skies with scattered t-storm chances for Saturday and mostly cloudy skies with scattered t-storms for Sunday. Despite that, we’re expecting temperatures to stay warm with highs in the lower 80s.


This upper-level low will leave us mostly cloudy with a good chance for periods of scattered rain and t-storms for Monday. We’ll stay warm to kick the new work week off with highs in the lower 80s. By Tuesday, that low is gone. However, we’ll have to watch for another upper-level low that will want to ride the flow of the jet stream to our west. Depending on how strong it is and where it sets up, we could probably see some scattered strong t-storms on Tuesday. It’s something we’ll watch over the next several days. Otherwise, partly sunny skies for Tuesday will keep us in the lower 80s for the afternoon.


For a look at the next few weeks, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!


June 8th-June 12th: We’ll be warm for this week. Wednesday through Friday look dry before t-storm chances return on Saturday.

June 13th-19th:  Another warm week with several rounds of storms during the middle of the week.