Latest updated blog – Warm & windy for Monday – Nick

Next storm system still set for the middle of the week

Good Sunday evening, everyone. While our weekend didn’t get off to the best start with our last storm system that kept us cloudy with rain and t-storms on Friday, we were at least able to end on a nice note across the area. You can see how temperatures responded to the nice day we had down below from Joplin Regional Airport. After we saw highs in the middle to upper 60s on Saturday and lows in the middle 40s this morning, we had highs top out at 76° in Joplin and middle to upper 70s across the rest of the region.


Looking at our weather setup, our storm system at the surface has certainly developed since we last checked in. With high pressure to our east and a warm front to our north, this allowed the south wind to kick in today at 15-25 mph (gusts near 30 mph). That south breeze will keep us mild tonight as we continue to watch our next cold front that’s stretching from Wyoming into southern California.


Upstairs at the jet stream level, our next upper-level low is working through northern California. Before that starts sending our next cold front our way, we’ll remain under the upper-level ridge that kept us dry and very mild today.


With our south wind at 10-20 mph through the night and into our Monday morning, we’ll have temperatures stay mild as lows drop back near 60° across much of the area. While some outlying areas could sneak back into the upper 50s, that’s about as chilly as we’ll get for our Monday to start things out.


Even with partly sunny skies returning for the rest of the day, we’re looking at a warm start to the work/school week. Underneath the upper-level ridge, our south wind will crank back into gear with sustained speeds between 20 & 30 mph (gusts near 35 mph). That setup will lead to highs in the lower 80s across much of the area. It wouldn’t surprise us if we had a few middle 80s pop up in our western areas before the day is all said and done.


After another mild and breezy night with lows in the middle 60s under partly cloudy skies, we’ll notice the skies turning mostly cloudy as we proceed throughout our Tuesday. As our frontal system begins to work into western Kansas, upper-level energy from the low digging across the Desert Southwest will head our way. Even though we’ll be warm again with highs in the upper 70s, we’ll watch for this setup to bring in scattered t-storms for late Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. While the main severe threat stays just to our south and west across south-central Kansas, central/western Oklahoma and western Texas, we’ll watch for some strong to low-end severe t-storms try to sneak in. If they can, wind and hail would be the main issues. We’ll continue to watch this setup over the next day and a half.


Once we get into Wednesday, that’s when the cold front will roll into the area. Combine that with additional lift and energy from the upper-level low that will track across southern New Mexico, we’ll have widespread rain and t-storm chances continue into Wednesday. If we can get unstable enough, we may have to watch for some strong t-storms for Wednesday. That’ll be another day that we’ll keep a close eye on.


Once we get past any lingering scattered t-storm chances on Thursday morning, the front will move on as our upper-level low also starts shifting its energy to the east. As a result, we’ll see skies turn partly sunny throughout the day and mild highs in the upper 60s.


While we’ll keep an eye on the potential for strong to severe t-storms for late Tuesday and Wednesday with this system, we’ll also have to keep an eye on the amount of rain that wants to head our way. The setup for the middle of the week is continuing to show rain totals between 1 and 3 inches by the time we start to dry things out on Thursday with the bulk of that rainfall coming on Wednesday. If we can’t spread out these expected totals over time as much as we can, we’ll have to also keep an eye on flooding concerns as we get into the middle of the week.


Fortunately, the latest projections show the upcoming weekend looking pretty good across the area. With ourselves on the milder side of the jet for Friday, we’ll have highs top out around 70° under mostly sunny skies. The jet stream setup below shows how our Saturday is looking. With the warmer side of the jet shifting back in, we’ll see temperatures respond to that. Even with partly sunny skies in place for Saturday, we’ll have highs topping out in the middle 70s before we see highs back near 80° next Sunday.


While the weekend does look okay, Doug’s pattern does show things getting active again with t-storms and a severe threat to keep an eye on early next week. If you’re curious about how we look for May and much of the month of June, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!


May 3nd-8th:  Sunday is looking warm before we turn mild for Monday and Tuesday. We’ll warm back up for Wednesday through Friday before a slight cool down on Saturday. We’ll watch for severe weather chances on Monday, Tuesday and Friday before we see just regular t-storms on Saturday.

May 9th-May 15th:  We’ll stay mild for Sunday and Monday before a warm up kicks in for Tuesday and Wednesday. After a mild Thursday, we’ll be warm to start the weekend out. We’ll watch for t-storms on Sunday, Monday, Wednesday and Saturday. We’ll watch Wednesday the 12th and Saturday the 15th for severe weather chances.

May 16th-May 22nd:  Except for a warm Tuesday, we’ll stay mainly mild for this week. We’ll watch for slight t-storm chances on Sunday, a severe threat for Tuesday the 18th, a severe threat for Thursday the 20th, a severe threat for Friday the 21st and additional t-storms on Saturday.

May 23rd-May 29th: We’ll go from warm temperatures Sunday & Monday to a mild stretch for the middle of the week and back to warm temperatures by the weekend. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday through Tuesday, showers on Wednesday and another chance for severe weather on Saturday the 29th.

May 30th-June 5th: We’ll bounce between mild and warm temperatures to start the week before a mild stretch kicks in for Wednesday and Thursday. We should be warm for Friday and mild for Saturday. T-storms are possible for Sunday, Tuesday and Friday followed by rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.