Latest updated blog – Warm Wednesday Lined Up – Nick
Few systems we're watching over the next several days
Good Tuesday evening, everyone. We managed to keep things quiet once again under clear skies from start to finish. With dry air still in place and a south wind that returned today, we saw temperatures trend a bit warmer compared to our Monday. After we started cool in the middle 40s this morning, we had afternoon highs bounce back into the lower 80s in Joplin and across the area.
The surface setup below continues to keep us quiet as our area of high pressure has shifted into the Tennessee Valley. While one cold front to our north has stalled and is planning to lift back to the north as expected, we’re waiting for the trailing cold front working through the Pacific Northwest to head our way.
Looking at the upper-level setup, a low working across southwestern Canada will be responsible for pushing that cold front at the surface our way. Until it gets here, the jet stream that stayed to the north will continue to do so and guarantee another warm day for us.
With a south breeze at 5-15 mph to take us through the overnight, we shouldn’t see temperatures turn quite so cool. Underneath clear skies, it will still be a chilly start to our Wednesday morning with lows in the lower to middle 50s.
Throughout the day, the south and southwest wind will pick up across the region. Working together with the dry air mass still in place, we’ll have temperatures quick to warm up once again after we get past sunrise. Not only will we be in the upper 70s by lunch time, we’ll push afternoon highs back into the middle 80 under mostly sunny skies.
While the wind during the afternoon will be out of the south and southwest at 15-25 mph, we haven’t touched on the gusts and how it could make for a tricky Wednesday for some of you. After a relatively light breeze to start the day, we’ll have wind gusts pushing to 35 or even 40 mph across parts of the area.
With the area dealing with varying stages of a drought, dry air still in place and warm temperatures, we have all of southwest Missouri and Linn, Bourbon, Crawford and Cherokee counties under a fire weather watch for Wednesday afternoon. Between noon and 6 PM, conditions in these areas and much of the region in general will not be ideal for anyone who planned to do some outdoor burning. Let’s hold off on doing that for another day.
Late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, our next cold front will work in from the northwest. Just like the last front we saw work through early Monday morning, this front will struggle to bring in some moisture. While it will have enough to bring partly to mostly cloudy skies for Thursday morning, we only see a slight chance for a random shower or sprinkle as the front passes through.
Otherwise, the cold front’s main job will be to bring fall temperatures back into the area. It will do so by dropping us back into the middle 50s for our Thursday morning.
Even with skies turning partly sunny to mostly sunny throughout the day, the north wind at 5-15 mph (gusts near 20 mph) behind the front will only allow temperatures to rebound into the middle 60s for Thursday afternoon.
Not only will we keep the north wind behind the front as we head into Thursday night and Friday morning, the jet stream will push back to our south as a strong upper-level low sits across the Canadian border. Even at that distance, it will be strong enough to send us into a cold Friday morning before we turn mild for Friday afternoon. The weekend will start out with lows in the middle to upper 30s (patchy frost may be possible for some) Friday morning before highs can bounce back into the lower to middle 60s for Friday afternoon.
Looking at the rest of the weekend, we’ll have partly sunny skies for Saturday. With a south wind in play, we’ll go from the upper 40s Saturday morning to afternoon highs around 70° across the region. For Sunday, we’ll have our next cold front start working in from the northwest. Have a look at how this system could unfold by Sunday morning on the Future Track below.
While this projection wants enough cold air for some wintry weather across parts of the Central/Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest, this setup wants to bring in enough moisture to result in scattered showers during the first part of our Sunday. Once we get past that, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the middle to upper 60s for the rest of the day. Considering that we need the rain, we’ll continue to keep a close eye on Sunday’s system and another potential wave with scattered showers possibly by next Tuesday. Nonetheless, the cold front on Sunday and another wave by early next week will keep fall in place with highs staying mild in the middle to upper 60s. Doug has the rest of your long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!
Next Wednesday-Saturday: With a system by the middle of the week and rain chances possible by the weekend, we’ll go from mild temperatures on Wednesday to a cool end to the week.
October 25th-31st: With the exception of rain chances on Thursday, the week is looking dry overall. We’ll start with cool temperatures before we turn mild for the middle of the week. By Friday and Halloween, we’ll stay dry as temperatures turn cool once again.