Latest updated blog – Warm Thursday lined up – Nick
Rain chances still lining up
Good Thursday morning, everyone. The surface map below really tells the tale of how the next several days will unfold. We have a front to our north that hasn’t been able to budge for much of this week. Before that changes by this weekend, we’re dealing with the tropical moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico being driven in by Hurricane Laura ready to make landfall.
Last time we checked in on Hurricane Laura, we saw it as a strong Category 4 storm with sustained wind speeds of 150 mph and gusts pushing over 160 mph. This is a remarkable hurricane and one that this part of the Gulf hasn’t seen since 2005. Poised to make landfall near the Louisiana/Texas border, this hurricane plans on bringing in storm surge between 10 and 20 feet for the southwestern Louisiana coast. Not only is that storm surge frightening, the surge will possible make its way inland by 30 or 40 miles close to the I-10 corridor.
After Laura made landfall early this morning in southwestern Louisiana, it will rapidly start to weaken as it continues its journey to the north through the day. By this afternoon, it will work out of northwestern Louisiana (around Shreveport) and into southwestern Arkansas.
While Laura will keep the bulk of the rain and t-storm chances to our southeast across much of Arkansas, Laura will continue to keep the moisture in place for our Thursday. After our mild and mainly dry start this morning, we could see a few showers pop up in a few spots while we continue to keep the cloud cover in place. By lunchtime, we’ll have temperatures pushing into the lower 80s.
We’re expecting a slightly better chance for scattered hit and miss t-storms to come our way for the afternoon. With mostly cloudy skies a pretty good bet for much of the day, that will keep us out of the heat for the afternoon. Still, it will be a warm and muggy day with highs in the upper 80s.
With Laura passing just to our southeast across central Arkansas, the eventual tropical storm will keep the better chances for rain and t-storms across those areas of the state. However, it’ll still be close enough to us to keep a chance for some scattered showers and t-storms for this evening and into late tonight.
By the start of Friday’s morning commute, Laura will start working into southeastern Missouri before it shoots into the Ohio River Valley for the rest of the day. While the departing system keeps us dry for Friday, some returning sun will push us back into the summer heat to start the weekend out. After we start in the upper 60s, partly sunny skies will push us back into the lower 90s for the afternoon.
While we start the weekend out on a dry note, our next system will head in from the north. The cold front will work in for Saturday and bring in better chances for widespread scattered rain and t-storms. Even with the better chances for scattered rain and t-storms, we’ll stay hot for Saturday with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
The frontal system sticks around for next Sunday and Monday. That will encourage highs to drop back into the middle to upper 80s as we head into a new week. With the better rain chances on the way, we could see rain chances between Saturday and Monday climb to amounts between 1 and 3 inches. Given that much of the area is in a drought to moderate drought, we’ll take the rain chances that’ll come our way. For a look at the rest of the month and much of September, Doug has you covered with his long-range forecast down below.
Have a great Thursday!
Long range forecast into September:
Next Thursday-Saturday: Warm for the rest of the week. Thunderstorm chances return on Friday.
September 6th-12th: Mainly a warm week with two cold fronts rolling through during the week. This will keep thunderstorm chances around most of the week.
September 13th-19th: A warm start but most of the week will be mild. Thunderstorm chances the first half of the week. Then mild and nice the rest of the week.