Latest updated blog – Warm Monday with rain chances around – Nick

Hot & humid air eager to return, however

Good Monday morning, everyone. After we ended the weekend on a hot and humid note, we’re all starting out on a warm and muggy note this morning. Despite that, the mostly cloudy skies aren’t resulting in any rain chances just yet. I say just yet because a weak wave wants to work in for today to get our work week started. That wave can’t be found on the surface map below. Any fronts to be found are staying to the north of us and will keep the better chances for strong to severe t-storms out of the picture.


The upper levels holds the answer to where our next wave is coming from and how the rest of the week will unfold. The jet stream setup shows an upper-level low in the Pacific Northwest and another in the Northeast. Underneath the building upper-level ridge that will be the main driver in our forecast this week, there’s a weak wave developing across southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas that will work in today.


After the AM drive to work is complete, this wave will start to produce some scattered t-storms as it starts to work into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. As the rain chances begin, it looks as though the main focus for the scattered t-storms will be across southwest Missouri and maybe as far west as the US 69 corridor. Even with the scattered t-storms and the mostly cloudy skies in place, the south wind at 15-20 mph (gusts near 30 mph) will push us into the lower 80s by lunchtime.


Scattered t-storms will continue into the afternoon as skies remain mostly cloudy. The pockets of sun we will see with the south wind will make sure that we warm back into the upper 80s for the afternoon.


Even though temperatures won’t be as hot as what we saw yesterday, the warm temperatures with dew points back near 70° will make it feel like we’ll be in the middle 90s for this afternoon.


The wave will start to lift to the northeast as we work into Tuesday. That will leave us with a quiet Monday evening and Tuesday morning. With that departing wave, it may try to give us a random t-storm or two for Tuesday afternoon under partly sunny skies. The main takeaway for Tuesday, though, is the departing wave will let the upper ridge regain control and send us into a hot and humid afternoon. After we start in the middle 70s for Tuesday morning, we’ll have highs ready to climb back into the lower 90s across the area.


With highs back in the lower 90s on Tuesday and the humidity staying fairly high, it’ll feel like the upper 90s to near 100° during the peak heating of the afternoon.


Then, we have Wednesday. The upper ridge in firm control will keep us mostly sunny, hot and humid across our area and the central part of the country. This setup will send highs into the middle 90s for Wednesday afternoon with the humidity planning on making it feel like 100° to 105°. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Heat Advisories go out for our area with those projected numbers in the forecast for Wednesday.


For Thursday, a change in the upper-level setup starts to unfold. The ridge will start to retrograde and slide back to the southwest. We’ll stay hot and humid with highs in the middle 90s, but the retreating ridge could bring a few t-storms into the picture for Thursday afternoon. The same can be said for Friday. Highs remain hot in the lower 90s with a few t-storms possible.


For the 4th of July Weekend, the ridge will shift into the southwestern United States. With the main flow of the jet stream closer to our area and a few waves wanting to ride along the edge of the ridge, we’re looking at partly sunny skies with some isolated t-storms possible for the 4th of July. That should be able to keep us out of the 90s for Saturday, but it will still be quite warm with highs in the upper 80s.


We’ll hold on to partly sunny skies and scattered t-storms for Sunday as highs remain in the upper 80s. The rest of next week looks warm to start before we heat up again. We’ll also be watching for returning t-storm chances for next Wednesday and into that weekend. For a look at the rest of July on the way, Doug has you covered with the long range forecast down below.

Have a great Monday!


Long range forecast through July:

Next Monday-Saturday:  Staying warm to start before we heat up again later on this week.  We’ll watch for returning afternoon pop-up t-storms Wednesday through Saturday.

July 12th-18th:  Warm the first half of the week with hot temps settling in the second half of the week.  Pop up storms Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Thunderstorm chances again by the weekend.  Tropics we need to watch possible development near Florida.

July 19th-25th:  Mainly a hot week with pop up isolated storms each and every day.  We will watch the tropics near Cuba.

July 26th- August 1st:  Again mainly a hot week with highs well into the 90s.  Mainly a dry week as well with thunderstorm chances by the weekend.  Tropics need to be watch this week in the Gulf.