Latest updated blog – Warm Friday lined up with strong to severe t-storms on the way – Nick
Other rain chances lined up through the forecast
Good Thursday evening, everyone. While some of us dealt with rain chances to start the day out, we all had to deal with the wind on the backside of our departing storm system. When that cold front came through on Wednesday, it certainly took us from the upper 60s and lower 70s early in the day to the 50s and lower 60s yesterday afternoon. Even with our west wind in action today at 10-25 mph (gusts near 40 at times), it was a breeze that kept us cooler than the past several days but still mild. After we started in the middle to upper 40s, we saw our afternoon highs top out in the lower 70s at Joplin Regional.
Looking at our weather setup as we head into our Friday, we see our previous storm system finally lifting deeper into the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. While we say goodbye to that system, our next cold front to our northwest won’t waste any time working our way by late Friday afternoon.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, it’s good to finally have our stubborn upper low around St. Louis finally move along and push our last storm system out of here. While it’s also nice that we’ll briefly be back on the warmer side of the jet for Friday, the upper low coming out of Montana will push our next front in and help aid in increasing t-storm chances by late Friday afternoon and Friday night.
At least we’ll start our Friday off on a mostly clear and quiet note. Despite a southerly breeze returning, it will be quite chilly with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s across the region by the time we get the AM drive started.
Ahead of the approaching cold front, we’ll have our temperatures eager to warm up quickly as we work through the rest of the day. Even with some partly sunny skies building back in by lunchtime, we all should be between 70° and 73° as we get the afternoon started.
By late afternoon, the region will have high temperatures topping out in the upper 70s before we see any t-storm development take place close to the I-44 corridor. As more moisture comes into play with the lift from the frontal system, some instability at the surface and the upper-level dynamics coming in, we could see t-storms start to develop between 2 and 4 PM.
Continuing into Friday evening, we’ll have mostly cloudy skies take control as rain and t-storms continue to develop and even try to cluster together across our a good portion of the area. These t-storms will certainly be capable of large hail, high wind gusts and heavy rainfall as the evening moves along.
Thankfully, the t-storm chances won’t be an all-night affair. We’ll see any t-storm chances move out late in the evening with some lingering showers trying to hold on before we hit sunrise Saturday morning.
You saw with the previous graphics how the prime time for strong to severe t-storms will be between 2 PM and 10 PM on our Friday. T-storms that initially develop will pose a risk for large hail, high wind gusts and heavy rainfall before the t-storms want to transition to mainly a high wind & heavy rain threat by the evening hours. While an isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out, we’re keeping that threat on the low side.
On the backside of this frontal system, we will start off on another cool note for our Saturday morning as lows drop back into the middle 40s under mostly cloudy skies.
With the upper-level wave lingering behind the surface system for Saturday, that will keep at least partly sunny skies in place with some wrap-around moisture keeping scattered showers in place for our northeastern areas. It will also turn cooler again, but we stay mild with highs around 60°.
If you didn’t get any rain from the last storm system, we’ll certainly try again with this system and its rain chances for Friday and Saturday. While we could see rain amounts range between a quarter of an inch to an inch, we could see locally higher amounts if we see heavy rain in some of Friday’s t-storms.
If you’re wondering if we have can have at least one completely dry day for our weekend, Sunday is your day. With us back on the warm side of the jet under mostly sunny skies, we’ll have lows in the lower to middle 40s in the morning and highs jumping back into the lower to middle 70s.
As soon as we get the new work/school week started, though, we’ll have changes on the way once again. One upper-level wave tracks to the north of the region on Monday but will send another cold front our way with some scattered rain possible and highs dropping back into the lower 60s.
For the middle of next week, we’re looking at a stretch of chilly temperatures. The jet setup below wants an upper-low out to our west to dig in and just slowly wander across Nevada and Utah. The configuration of the upper-level winds will carry any impulses of energy our way and keep us generally under mostly cloudy skies with some rain chances to contend with. It won’t rain every day through the middle of next week, but each day will have the chance for either a few showers or some scattered showers as highs only climb into the upper 50s.
If you’re curious about how we look for next weekend and the rest of the month, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Friday!
April 16th-April 17th: We’ll stay cool for the rest of the week while we deal with rain chances on Friday and slight rain chances on Saturday.
April 18th-April 24th: With the exception of some t-storm chances on Tuesday, we’re looking at mainly a quiet week. We’re mild to start the week before we warm back up for Thursday and to start the weekend out.
April 25th-May 1st: Several waves will be on the way for this week. We’ll watch for t-storms and a severe threat for our Sunday. After t-storm chances for Monday and Tuesday, we’ll watch for a severe threat with our t-storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll dry out for Friday and Saturday before we see another wave with a possible severe threat by that following Sunday, May 2nd. Sunday will be warm before we settle for a mild stretch from Monday through Friday. We’ll turn warm again on Saturday.