Latest updated blog – Warm & dry Thursday lined up – Nick

Before rain and cooler temperatures return very soon
Thuplanner

Good Wednesday evening, everyone. After we finally saw temperatures turn mild again with highs in the lower to middle 60s yesterday, we turned quite a bit warmer today. Our morning got off to a chilly start with lows in the lower to middle 50s before we saw highs push back into the middle 80s in Joplin this afternoon.

36hrtrend

We can thank a warm front working back in from the south today for the big jump in temperatures. Before it worked through, it served as the main focus for showers and t-storms during late Tuesday night and through a portion of the morning. Once it pushed far enough to the north, our cloudy skies turned partly sunny throughout the day as the wind kicked back out of the south. This will keep us warm for another day before the back side of the system pushes another cold front our way.

Surfacemap

That cold front to our west will start heading our way once an upper-level low in northwestern Montana continues its push along the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains. Until that happens, the core jet stream is back to our north to keep us warm for our Thursday ahead of us.

Jetsetup

We’ll keep quiet for the rest of the night and into Thursday morning with some passing cloud cover at times. With the south wind at 5-15 mph (some occasional gusts near 20), temperatures will stay mild with lows only dropping back into the middle to upper 60s by sunrise Thursday morning.

Thuam

Under partly to mostly sunny skies and a south wind at 10-20 mph (gusts near 30) during the afternoon, areas that were warm today will be warm once again. Areas that didn’t get the chance to join us in the warmth this afternoon will have their turn for Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the next cold front on the way, we’ll find ourselves topping out in the lower to middle 80s once again for the afternoon.

Thuaftn

While most spots will be dry to start Thursday evening out, the south wind will be pulling in moisture ahead of the cold front ready to push in from the northwest. That will result in showers and t-storms developing along and behind the cold front as it starts its journey to the southeast. That means the warmest we’ll be on our Friday will be at the midnight hour with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Fridayfront

Even though we’ll have scattered rain and t-storms through the overnight and into Friday morning, we aren’t expecting anything too strong or severe. Areas that see the north wind kick in behind the front, though, will start cooling down very quickly. Anyone with the south and southeast wind ahead of the front by the start of the Friday AM drive will have temperatures in the middle 60s. Everyone else will start much cooler with temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Fridayam

The north wind in place for the rest of Friday will continue to bring the cool air in to kick off the weekend. Even if we see some partial clearing by the late afternoon and into early Friday evening, temperatures will continue to drop throughout the day. Plan on keeping the jackets handy for the drive home from work and school with temperatures sitting in the middle 40s.

Fridayaftn

With the front to our southeast and the upper-level wave moving into the Great Lakes, we’ll hold onto mostly cloudy skies as we stay dry for Saturday. With us back on the cooler side of the jet, we’ll have to start Saturday morning out in the upper 30s before we top out in the lower to middle 50s across the region.

Quietsaturday

For Sunday, our next front will start working in as we see the upper levels get active once again. Temperatures stay mild in the middle 60s with rain chances returning to wrap up our weekend. Note the upper-level setup below, though. Not only will we have another upper-level pass to our north, look at how deep the jet stream digs across the western United States.

Sundayrain

That is cooler to colder air being bottled up before some of that starts heading our way for early next week. We need to keep an eye on not only how fast this colder air starts working in, but how deep the colder air can work in. Early indications show that we’ll start Monday off with periods of rain chances before some of this colder air could bring an early taste of a wintry mix either close by or into the region.

Watchingmonday

This setup wants to stick around for Tuesday with morning lows in the lower 30s before we only climb back to about 40° for the afternoon. We should be able to trend a bit warmer to have that system end as rain chances by next Wednesday. With that system still several days out, plenty can change. We’ll continue to watch the setup closely and make any adjustments to the forecast as needed. To see how Halloween is shaping up and how we look going into November, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!

Nick

Next Thursday-Halloween: Staying chilly for Thursday before another quick system works in for Friday and Saturday.  This will give us rain chances with cooler temperatures.  Hopefully any rain will be out by Halloween evening.

November 1st-7th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures returning by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, this will bring chilly temps again for the rest of the week.

November 8th-14th:  Mild temperatures return early in the week with rain no Tuesday and Wednesday.  This will be cold and dry conditions the rest of the week.

November 15th-21st:  Mainly a cool wee with rain chances on Tuesday and Thursday.  Warming up a bit by the weekend.