Latest updated blog – Warm and quiet Wednesday lined up – Nick
Summer heat & humidity still eager to return very soon
Good late Tuesday evening, everyone. Our streak of below normal days continued once again as we keep evaporating the excess moisture we picked up from the recent rains over the past week. After we saw highs around 86° in Joplin and other parts of the area yesterday, Joplin Regional topped out at 84° this afternoon. Other areas topped out in the middle 80s today after a mild start in the upper 60s this morning.
It felt like Mother Nature spoiled us so far this month since we haven’t had to deal with much (if any) in the way of typical July heat and humidity. Changes are on the way, though, to remind us that it is still summer around here. At the surface, the setup shows a little area of high pressure sitting along the Iowa/Missouri border. It may be small, but it’ll keep our easterly breeze going into the night and will keep us quiet again for Wednesday. Plus, it’s keeping frontal systems to our north and south where the better rain and t-storm chances will stay.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the upper-level low that brought some widely scattered rain to parts of southwestern Missouri is continuing to drift into the Deep South and along the Gulf Coast. With the upper-level ridge waiting for us out to our west, this setup actually led to a bit of a hazy appearance to the sky for some of you today. That’s because smoke from the wildfires out west and in parts of southwestern Canada are going up high enough in the atmosphere that the upper-level winds have actually steered some of the smoke across other parts of the country. While parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest have seen some of the smoke, the hazy appearance has made its way here with some of the smoke riding around the ridge.
Fortunately, the departing upper-level low will keep the upper ridge and the heat to our west for another day. That will certainly mean a nice and mild night with a light east breeze and mostly clear skies. That will lead to overnight lows in the middle 60s before we hit sunrise on our Wednesday morning.
With no waves to worry about once again for Wednesday, we’ll keep quiet across the entire area. With some partly sunny skies returning during the day, a light easterly (occasionally southeasterly) breeze in place and moisture we’re still evaporating from recent rainfall, we’ll stay below normal but warm once again with highs back around 87°.
By Thursday, the departing upper-level low will continue its journey westward across the state of Texas. As it does, the jet stream will start working back toward the region. While that makes sure we’ll push highs into the upper 80s across the region, another wave wants to ride along the returning jet. If it passes close enough to the region with enough lift and moisture to work with, we’ll have a slight chance for a few isolated t-storms during the day. Most spots, though, will stay dry as we stay very warm for Thursday.
Once we hit Friday and head into the weekend, that’s when the upper-level ridge will build back in from the west. While it will be a dry start to the weekend (a complete 180° from last weekend), this is when we’ll see highs bounce back into the lower 90s across the area. With the returning humidity, it will feel like the middle to upper 90s for both Friday and Saturday afternoon.
By the time we hit next Sunday and Monday, the upper-level ridge will still be in control of our weather setup. However, we’re watching for a few weaknesses under the ridge. While that could result in perhaps a stray shower on Sunday and a few isolated t-storms for Monday, those rain chances look pretty slim compared to the past several days.
In general, we’ll plan on staying on the dry side under partly sunny skies as we work through early next week. With morning lows in the middle 70s and highs in the middle 90s, that will be a definite return of the more typical July heat around here. However, the humidity under that heat could make it feel like the lower triple digits for each afternoon early next week. We’ll keep an eye on that in case that leads to heat advisories later on. For now, Doug has your long range forecast out into the middle of August down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!
July 28th-31st: We’ll stay hot and mainly dry as we wrap up the month.
August 1st-7th: Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.
August 8th-14th: Hot first half of the week and a warm second half. Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.
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