Latest updated blog – Warm again with rain Wednesday – Nick

Rain chances tapering off by the weekend

Good early Wednesday morning, everyone. Occasionally, Mother Nature can throw us a curveball that ends up playing in our favor. After periods of scattered rain and t-storms since Friday, Tuesday turned out to be a pretty dry day across a good portion of the area. Couple that with partly sunny skies at times, our temperatures responded nicely to that across the region. After we saw highs in the middle 70s on Monday, we had highs top out around 80° after a mild start in the lower to middle 60s.


It was certainly nice to see that dry time for a good portion of our Tuesday. In fact, it was much needed after the area picked up 1.5″ of rain on average since our rain chances kicked into gear back on Friday. Needless to say, some areas saw rain amounts push over 3 inches that led to some minor flooding and some occasional flash flooding earlier in the week.


Looking at our weather setup, we are starting to see some changes take place. At the surface, our stubborn frontal boundary is slowly lifting back to the north and will start to fall apart as we work through the day ahead of us. Before it can fall apart, though, it is serving as another focal point for some scattered rain and t-storms. Also, another cold front has appeared in the western United States. That won’t start to affect our forecast until we get into Tuesday.


Upstairs at the jet stream level, we’re starting to see an upper-level ridge build across the eastern parts of the country. Not only will that play a role in our forecast for the coming weekend, it will also help to push our stubborn upper-level low out of the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains and send it to our north over the next few days.


Before this stubborn upper-level low starts clearing out, it will keep us mostly cloudy and mild to start this morning out as temperatures drop back into the middle 60s. It would be wise to have the umbrella handy once again as we’ll continue with the chance for scattered showers and a few t-storms as the AM drive gets started.


For our afternoon ahead of us, it looks as though mostly cloudy skies will prevail this time and we’ll have some periods of scattered rain and t-storms through the day. While we do plan on staying warm with highs back in the upper 70s, it’ll be a hair cooler compared to our highs around 80° yesterday.


While the upper-level low starts lifting to our north, it will still keep mostly cloudy skies across the area as we head through the evening and into Thursday morning. While the chance for scattered rain and t-storms will be around to start the evening out, we could see some dry time overnight as lows drop back into the middle 60s once again.


As we start the morning drive on Thursday, we’ll have another band of scattered rain and t-storms roll in from the south. Those rain chances will continue throughout the day with mostly cloudy skies once again. Despite the rain chances, we’ll still stay warm with highs back in the upper 70s across the area.


As for potential rain amounts over the next 2 days, the periods of rain and t-storms could bring an additional half an inch to 2 inches across the region. If more heavier pockets of rain can materialize and roll on through, we could see some spots push over 3 inches.


Looking to the weekend, the upper-level ridge starts to build in. While that helps keep us warm with highs back around 80°, a weak wave riding around the edge of the ridge will clip us with some scattered t-storms as skies stay partly sunny across the area.


The Future Track shown below applies for both Saturday and Sunday. The upper-level ridge will keep the majority of the area dry. While some isolated t-storms can’t be ruled out for both Saturday and Sunday, we’re looking better for both days with partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s.


Next Monday is looking dry with partly sunny skies and warm with highs staying in the lower 80s across the area. However, the upper-level ridge starts to shift back into the Southeast. With that shift and another upper-level low out west bringing a wave our way with our next cold front, we’ll watch for scattered t-storms to return on Tuesday. Since that fits with Doug’s pattern, some could be strong to possibly severe. That’s a trend that we need to keep an eye on as we work into the middle of next week.


To see how we look to wrap up May and how June is looking, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a great Wednesday!


May 26th-May 29th: Chances for thunderstorms will continue. We’ll watch for a low severe threat on Wednesday before it ramps up for the holiday weekend.  However, temperatures look great, mainly in the 80s.

May 30th-June 5th: A stormy holiday with a severe threat.  Warm with thunderstorm sticking around on Tuesday.  Cooling down a bit for the middle of the week and dry.  Warming up late in the week with thunderstorm chances once again.

June 6th-June 12th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Severe threat returns for Saturday.

June 13th-19th:  A warm week with thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.