Latest updated blog – Unseasonably mild Tuesday lined up for us – Nick
Systems lining up down the road
Good Monday evening, everyone. Today felt like summer compared to where we were about a week ago. I know we want to put last week behind us (and I don’t blame you), but it helps to put things in perspective. Last Monday, we had lows drop to -8 in Joplin before we managed an afternoon high of just 1 degree above zero. After our middle 40s yesterday, we pushed to 58 for this Monday afternoon after we started in the upper 20s and lower 30s this morning. That’s a big temperature swing that I can get behind.
If you loved today, you’ll love how tomorrow will unfold. We’ll have the weather setup to push the numbers even warmer as we venture through our Tuesday. First, our last cold front that came through on Sunday is well to our east now. We have an area of high pressure to our south keeping the southerly winds in place while we watch for our next cold front out in the Pacific Northwest.
The upper-level setup is also working to our favor as we work into Tuesday. We’ll have a temporary upper-level ridge slide overhead to keep us very mild compared to February standards. That will be nice before the upper low coming out of Canada starts to work in our direction and push that front in the Pacific Northwest our way very soon.
Compared to where we were last week as far as temperatures go, it’s not fair to call our overnight lows cold. Still, we’ll see lows back near freezing across the region with mostly clear skies in place. We do expect the southerly wind to pick up at 10-20 through the overnight and into our Tuesday morning.
The south wind at 10-15 mph with mostly sunny skies and that upper-level ridge in place means we’ll have temperatures we shouldn’t see in February. On a normal late February day, we should have highs in the lower to middle 50s. We’ll have highs pushing into the upper 60s in Joplin while the whole area will push into the middle to upper 60s. With our projected high of 68 for Joplin on Tuesday, that would mean we’ll see temperatures 83 degrees warmer compared to our low of -15 last Tuesday morning. That’s just an amazing feat!
Like Doug has said time and again… Whenever you get this mild (or warm) in February (or in any of our winter months), we have to drop back down at some point. That front in the Pacific Northwest works in late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. As it does, we’ll see partly to mostly cloudy skies work in with some drizzle late Tuesday night and a few showers possible during Wednesday morning. Fortunately, this isn’t an Arctic front. This will, however, send lows back into the upper 30s to near 40 for our Wednesday morning.
We will see some warming under partly sunny skies for Wednesday. However, we’ll have chilly temperatures back in play with Joplin topping out around 53 and the rest of the area seeing lower to middle 50s for our Wednesday afternoon.
As we look down the road, we’ll have another wave sneak in on Thursday. While that knocks highs back into the upper 40s, we’ll see mostly cloudy skies for the day and a few showers try to sneak in during the afternoon.
Heading into the upcoming weekend, we’ll it get started on a decent note. We’ll keep dry under mostly cloudy skies for Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 40s for Friday and upper 50s for Saturday.
Heading into Sunday, though, we’ll have another wave head our way to keep us in the clouds and bring rain chances back into the region. All the while, temperatures will stay chilly with highs in the middle to upper 50s.
On Monday, we’ll stay mostly cloudy with highs in the lower 50s as another wave heads our way. You can se how this will keep rain chances in the forecast as this wave rolls in through the day.
The wave for Monday may start as rain, but we’ll watch for a rain/snow mix on the backside of this wave as we roll into next Tuesday. If you’re curious as to how we look for the month of March and the first few days of April, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.
Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
Next Tuesday-Saturday: Temperatures stay cool for the rest of the week. Monday’s wave could end as some rain/snow chances Tuesday morning before it moves on. We’ll watch for other rain chances Wednesday through Friday before we see a slight chance for rain and snow on Saturday.
March 7th-13th: The week starts with cool temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Mild for Tuesday through Friday before we cool back down on Saturday. The only rain chances we see for this week will be on Thursday and Friday.
March 14th-20th: We start the week with rain or snow chances on Sunday. The cycle before this system produced 1″ of snow. With cool temperatures for Sunday, we’ll watch it. Mild temperatures return for Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. This system gave us severe weather with some tornado warnings on January 30th, lets watch this one! Cool for Friday before we turn milder for Saturday as we start a dry weekend out.
March 21st-27th: We’ll be mild for Sunday and Monday before we turn briefly cooler for Tuesday. A brief jump to a mild Wednesday before we stay cool for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for slight rain chances on Monday and better rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday.
March 28th-April 3rd: Cool temperatures for Sunday and Monday. We’ll briefly turn mild for Tuesday and Wednesday before we cool back down for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, slight rain chances on Wednesday, rain chances on Thursday and rain/snow chances to start the weekend out.