Latest updated blog – Turning unseasonably milder for the next few days – Nick

Watching some waves down the road
Monplanner

Good late Sunday evening, everyone. Even though we had a cold front work on through today, it didn’t make too much of a fuss as we wrapped up our weekend. While the front did bring in cloud cover across the region, all it could muster up was some areas of drizzle for the morning and into the afternoon. This also served to keep temperatures in check for the day. After seeing lows around 16 Saturday morning and highs in the middle 40s, we didn’t see much variation in temperatures for today. After we dropped into the middle 30s, we went back into the middle 40s for our Sunday afternoon.

36hrtrend

Breaking down our weather setup, the front that brought us mostly cloudy skies and areas of drizzle today has moved on. We find ourselves staying quiet on the backside of the front and with no other immediate systems to our west.

Surfacesetup

Upstairs at the jet stream level, we’re still in the process of getting our upper low to move on. Once it does, we’ll see the jet stream shift back to our north for the next few days. That will keep us in a nice setup to start the week out before our next wave comes out of the Pacific Northwest.

Jetsetup

As our last front continues to move on to the east, that will leave us with mostly clear skies to start your Monday morning out. Even with a southwest breeze at 5-10 mph, it will be a cold start with lows in the upper 20s across much of the area.

Mondayam

Throughout our Monday, it’ll be remarkable to see how fast the thermometer will rise. Not only will the southwest wind at the surface pick up at speeds between 5 and 15 mph (gusts near 25), we’ll have a milder air mass aloft start to work over the region. This setup, along with mostly sunny skies all day along, will send us soaring into the upper 40s by the lunch hour and into the middle 50s for the afternoon.

Mondayaftn

We’ll have cold temperatures lined up once again for Monday night and Tuesday morning. With a southwest breeze calming down just a little under mostly clear skies, we’ll have lows drop mainly into the middle 30s across the region.

Tuesdayam

The setup in place for us on our Tuesday is looking quite remarkable. Last Tuesday, we had lows drop to -15 at Joplin Regional and afternoon highs climb back to 13 degrees. This Tuesday afternoon will feel like a heat weave with highs projected to climb into the lower to middle 60s.

Tuesdayaftn

Not only should we enjoy the quiet and warmer weather over the next few days, we should thank Mother Nature for giving us the jet stream setup that will bring it our way. After the upper low moves off to the east, we’ll find ourselves under an upper-level ridge that will keeps certainly milder compared to how we started last week out.

Earlyweekjet

Working into Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll see another upper low come our way out of the Pacific Northwest. This wave doesn’t look very impressive. That being said, it will try to work with whatever lift and upper energy it has with any moisture that it can pick up along the way. We’ll see this try to bring a few rain showers our way as we see highs near 50 on Wednesday and possibly a few rain and snow showers our way to start Thursday morning out. We’ll generally see mostly cloudy skies as this wave departs Thursday with highs in the middle 40s.

Midweeksystem

Heading into the upcoming weekend, we’ll have one wave graze us to the north. However, it passes close enough that we’ll keep an eye out for some scattered showers mainly for Friday afternoon and into Friday evening. Despite that, we’ll have partly sunny skies push highs into the lower 50s for Friday afternoon.

Fridayshowers

For Saturday, we see ourselves staying quiet under partly sunny skies and chilly with highs back in the middle 50s. By next Sunday, a stronger storm system comes into the picture. This is a system that fits with Doug’s pattern. We’ll see this bring a strong cold front across the Central Plains. While this wants to bring mostly cloudy skies our way and rain chances into the region, we could be quite mild ahead of the front with highs pushing into the lower 60s.

Nextweekendsystem

Once we get on the colder side of the front, the upper-level low will still play a role in our forecast and switch our rain chances over to a wintry mix by next Monday. We still have several days to watch this and we’ll let you know if we see any changes to this as we roll along. If you’re curious as to how we look for the month of March ahead of us, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.

Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

Next Monday-Saturday: Rain and wintry weather for Monday as we turn colder.  This would be the Jan 14th storm that gave us 1/2″ of snow.  We’ll see if we can stay dry on Tuesday before we see rain or snow on Wednesday into Thursday.  Cool and dry the rest of the week.

March 7th-13th:  We start the week week cool and dry.  Mild temperatures for the middle of the week with rain on Thursday and Friday.  Last time this system gave us very heavy rains on January 25th, I expect the same.

March 14th-20th:  We start the week with rain or snow chances on Sunday.  The cycle before this system produced 1″ of snow.  We may be a little warm for snow being so deep into March, but I will watch it.  Mild temperatures return for the middle of the week with rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  This system gave us severe weather with some tornado warnings on January 30th, lets watch this one!  Cooler and dry the rest of the week.

March 21st-27th:  A mild start with slight rain chances on Monday but better rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  This was the system that started the arctic blast on the Super Bowl.  I expect it a little warmer this time around but will watch it.  Cool the rest of the week.

March 28th-April 3rd:  Cool with rain on Sunday.  Warming up a bit by mid week with rain on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  There is a slight chance some snow could be mixed in.