Latest updated blog – Trending milder for Sunday – Nick
Rain chances to take us through Memorial Day and middle of this week
Good early Sunday morning, everyone. While it was nice to continue to dry out after the flooding rainfall on Thursday and on & off rain chances since the 14th, the stubborn cloud cover we had for much of the day had quite an impact on temperatures. After seeing highs in the middle 60s on Friday, we actually trended a little cooler for our Saturday afternoon. While lows at Joplin Regional only dropped down to 50°, high temperatures could only warm back up near 60° during the late afternoon.
Looking at our weather setup, our last cold front that gave us severe weather and flooding rainfall on Thursday is well to our south along the Gulf Coast. Even though there’s a trailing center of low pressure with a stationary front out in Colorado and stretching back into Nevada, those features will stay mainly to our south for the coming week.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, a subtle ridge is trying to sneak in from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. While this should help us out with temperatures for today, note the upper-level low over Las Vegas. That helped trigger the severe t-storms out in Colorado, New Mexico and into the Panhandles Saturday evening. That low will start to ride around the ridge and right along the jet. That will serve as a mechanism to start bringing rain chances back into the forecast.
Any rain out west will stay out west through the early morning hours. We’ll keep dry with partly cloudy skies in place. However, it will be a cool start as lows drop back into the middle 40s around the Joplin area and some outlying areas in the upper 40s.
While the morning starts out partly sunny, we will see more cloud cover work in from the west as we head into the afternoon. Despite that, a southeast breeze and slightly lower humidity should give our temperatures a bump up compared to Saturday afternoon. We’ll expect highs to top out in the upper 60s to near 70° for this afternoon. While most of the area should stay dry, the upper-level wave out west wants to try to bring a few showers into our western counties by late afternoon and into the early evening.
Beyond a few showers in our western areas early this evening, most spots will be dry to begin the overnight as we head into our Memorial Day. However, the wave out west will start shifting into the Southern Rockies. While this could bring a few scattered showers in here by the start of our Monday morning, that will lead to an increase in our rain & t-storm chances especially during the afternoon.
With that in mind and skies expected to remain mostly cloudy for our Memorial Day, it will keep temperatures cooler than normal across the area. While we should see highs in the lower 80s right at the end of the month, we’ll start Memorial Day out in the middle 50s and see highs stop just short of 70° across the area.
Beyond Memorial Day, the upper-level low starts working into the Central Plains. That shift will leave us with good chances for t-storms for Tuesday as we stay under cloudy skies. This setup will likely keep us in the upper 60s once again for Tuesday afternoon.
After this wave gives us another round of scattered rain and t-storms for Wednesday with highs back in the middle 70s, it will move on as we roll into Thursday and Friday. While the returning ridge may bring in some more humid air to allow for a stray t-storm or two for both days, we’ll focus on mainly dry weather. Highs will bounce back into the upper 70s on Thursday and the lower 80s on Friday.
By Saturday, another upper-level wave wants to develop and pass to our northwest. Couple that with another potent upper-level low skirting across northern Montana, we could see scattered t-storms back in the forecast for Saturday as highs stay in the lower 80s. With this upper-level setup and warmth and humidity at the surface to work with, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this result in some strong t-storms by Saturday afternoon.
For a look at the next few weeks, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a great Sunday!
June 6th-June 12th: A warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday. Most of the week looks good till storms by Saturday.
June 13th-19th: Another warm week with several rounds of storms during the middle of the week.
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