Latest updated blog – Trending drier & brighter for Wednesday – Nick
Warming trend begins & takes us into the weekend
Good late Tuesday evening, everyone. We sure had a change of the season take place over the past 24 hours. We went from a nice and warm end to the summer season yesterday to cloudy skies, rain chances and cooler temperatures to kick off the fall season today. Thanks to some tropical moisture from Tropical Depression Beta, our southern counties got the chance to see some rain today. While the radar estimates have an average of 0.3″, some moderate pockets of rain sent some of you over 3/4 of an inch of rain for today.
The clouds and areas of showers and drizzle certainly had an impact on temperatures when you see how Monday fared compared to our Tuesday. After a nice and warm end to the summer season, temperatures couldn’t move around a lot today. After morning lows only dropped into the lower 60s, we had the Joplin Regional Airport top out at 71. While most topped out in the lower 70s, some spots that managed to stay dry saw highs go into the middle 70s.
We’ll start improving our weather setup as we work into Wednesday. We’ll start with mostly cloudy skies and a few showers for our chilly morning. After that, the departing moisture will have skies turning partly sunny by the afternoon. That should start warming us back up with highs in the middle 70s.
The surface setup below continues to show that despite Tropical Depression Beta crawling along the Texas coast south of Houston, some of that moisture is keeping us mostly cloudy through the night. High pressure over the Tennessee Valley has been helping pull that moisture our way throughout the day. Up to the north, a cold front stretching across the Northern Great Plains and Northern Rockies will continue to stay to our north.
While no big systems at the jet stream level are lining up to our west, we did have an upper-level low develop on top of the area today. That provided additional lift to keep the cloud cover around the area with some seeing the rain chances. Thankfully, it will start to head to the east on Wednesday and start taking this tropical moisture out of here.
With the tropical moisture sticking around through the night and into Wednesday morning, that will keep mostly cloudy skies in place. Our northern counties will continue to stay dry while our southern counties can’t rule out some additional showers or drizzle through the night and into the start of the morning drive. Overnight lows will be a bit chilly with most falling back close to 59°.
While we’ll have to start the day with mostly cloudy skies and slight rain chances, the moisture will start heading out through the day. By the noon hour, the rain chances are out of here as some returning sun will get us into the upper 60s to start the afternoon out. Through the rest of the afternoon, partly sunny skies are expected to return and send us back into the middle 70s for highs across the area.
As we work through Wednesday evening and into Thursday morning, our partly cloudy skies will start turning mostly clear all across the region. With that and temperatures dropping into the middle 50s, we’ll have to watch our wind setup and the dew points. If the breeze can stay light and if temperatures can get close to the dew point, that could result in some areas of fog for Thursday morning.
If we see any fog develop, it’ll burn off through the morning and give way to mostly sunny skies for the rest of the day. We’ll be back into warm territory for Thursday afternoon with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s.
Heading into the weekend, a quick upper-level ridge will pass over the region. That will keep us mostly sunny and warm for Friday and Saturday with highs climbing back into the middle 80s. As we head into the weekend, though, we’ll keep an eye on a developing cold front to our northwest.
For Sunday, the weak cold front works through. With most of the moisture confined to the Great Lakes, this front will only bring in partly sunny skies while we stay warm with highs in the middle 80s.
Next Monday will be a very warm day with partly sunny skies in place. Before a stronger cold front can work in, we’ll have lows starting in the upper 60s and highs pushing into the upper 80s for the afternoon. As a stronger front works in Monday evening, it could work with just enough moisture to fire off some isolated t-storms. The main story with this front and a stronger upper-level low over the Great Lakes will be temperatures dropping into the lower 70s for highs on Tuesday.
That taste of fall should last through the middle of next week before we try to warm back up by next weekend. If you’re curious as to how we’ll wrap up September and how October is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long-range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!
Next Tuesday-Saturday: We’ll stay dry and mild through the middle of the week. We’ll try to warm back up by the weekend.
October 4th-10th: Mainly a mild and calm week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.
October 11th-18th: A mild start but a cool end of the week. Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
October 19th-25th: Mainly a mild week with cooler temperatures by the weekend. Rain chances on Monday, then again Thursday through Friday.