Latest updated blog: Thunderstorms, cooler temperatures, tropics and your long range forecast. -Doug

Thunderstorms, cooler temperatures, tropics and your long range forecast. -Doug

Good Thursday evening!  I hope your week has been great so far.  Mine has been pretty good but very busy.  From insurance calls, doctors calls, hanging with my son and working, it definitely gives me some packed full days!  However, the temperatures have been fantastic all week for late July.  Plus, we have been getting scattered showers and thunderstorms most of the week.  That is something we need as we have been drying out the past two months.  Lets dig into the Heady Pattern, this system, the tropics and our long range forecast.  We are still in the 2019-2020 Heady Pattern.  However, it is wrapping up and we are now slowly starting the morphing from this pattern to the new 2020-2021 pattern.  From this point on, we will slowly morph into the new pattern that will be fully set by the beginning of fall.  However, for at least the next month, the old pattern will be dominant.  By September, the new pattern becomes the dominant pattern.  Lets see where we are at today.

500 Mb

I love upper level maps, or a 500mb chart.  You can see all the storm systems and even the little tiny waves that produce these afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  You can see the two big systems in Canada and the little wave that is rotating through our neck of the woods giving us showers and thunderstorms tonight.  However, check out the two circles at the bottom of the map.  Little wave in the Gulf of Mexico and then our tropical storms Isaias near Cuba.  Now, if we go back one cycle, I think this is pretty cool.  So lets jump back to June 2nd, that was once cycle ago in the pattern but the same part of the pattern.

June 2nd

You can see the two systems that are in Canada, the wave over us and even the tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico.  Now this is very common to see in June.  You can see the upper level high near Cuba, but this time around under the high we were able to develop a tropical storm.  This is right on track with our hurricane forecast, and it will be interesting to see how the tropics start to become much more active over the next two months.  This year we have been on a 58 day Heady Pattern cycle.  I am super excited to watch the set up of the new pattern over the next couple of months.  So lets look at this wave for tonight.  This wave will pivot right through the region giving us scattered thunderstorms tonight on Friday.


Most of the scattered storms will be north of I-44 prior to midnight.  However, as the wave pivots through, this will drive the scattered showers and thunderstorms a little farther south.  Main threats with this wave is heavy rains.  We could have a few stronger storms but I am not expecting anything to organized with stronger storms.  I think most of these will stay below severe potential.  Let’s move to 3 AM.

3 Am

And now into the mid morning hours.

9 Am

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the morning.  This will keep us into the 70s through the morning hours.  By the noon hour, the scattered storms will start to shift off to the SE.


By 3 PM, most of the storms will be in our SE counties of the viewing area.  We will have a lot of clouds around the rest of the day, but as we dry out we should be able to get to about 80 degrees for an afternoon high which is pretty good for the end of July.

Most of Saturday looks dry.  There is a very slight chance for a pop up storm, but it looks great with a high into the lower 80s.


Rainfall will be hard to pinpoint because this wave will have scattered storms.  Some areas could get 3″ of rain while others only a 1/4″ of rain.  We will have to see where the heavier bands set up.  So we will have a range in rainfall amounts.


Lets jump to the tropics.  We have tropical storm Isaias which is heading toward the Florida coast for the weekend.  As of right now, it looks like it will ride up the east coast as a Cat. 1 hurricane, but definitely needs to be watched.


Check out my long range forecast below!


Long range forecast through August:

Next Friday-Saturday: Heating back up a bit with chances for isolated storms each day.  A little cooler as we work into the weekend.

August 9th-15th:  Mainly a hot week as the lovely 90s return.  Sunday and Monday should be dry with isolated afternoon storms from Tuesday through Friday.  The best chances for storms will be on Thursday and Friday.  A little cooler for us on Saturday.

August 16th-22nd:  A hot start, but most of the week warm with hot temperatures returning late in the week.  Chances for scattered storms on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Saturday.

August 23rd-29th:  A warm start to the week but most of the week on the hot side.  Isolated storms on Sunday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

August 30th-September 5th:  Most of the week will be warm with hot temperatures returning late in the week and into the holiday weekend.  Scattered thunderstorms on Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  However, the start of the Labor Day holiday weekend looks pretty nice.