Latest updated blog – The heat is definitely on – Nick
Even with a few t-storms thrown into the forecast
Good Monday evening, everyone. Sure enough, a weak wave did manage to sneak by the area as it tracked across the Ozarks in southern Missouri. It kept the cloud cover in play and manged to fire up some isolated t-storms mainly on the MO side this afternoon. It still didn’t change the fact that we saw temperatures go from a warm and muggy start this morning right back into the lower 90s this afternoon. Even though we did have a few t-storms today, nothing managed to materialize at Joplin Regional for today. With that empty rain bucket reading for today, we’re still under 3/4 of an inch for the entire month of June. We’re still above normal by at least 5 inches for the year, but almost 8 inches behind where we were last year.
While there may be a random shower this evening and another shot for a few t-storms for Tuesday afternoon, the temperatures will play out just like they did today. Tuesday morning will start warm and muggy before we go back for another hot and humid afternoon ahead of us.
While nothing is really going on at the surface, all the action driving our weather lies upstairs at the jet stream. Two upper lows have carved out a spot for themselves to the north with one each taking a corner. That’s driving some mountain snow in parts of the Northern Rockies with severe weather ahead of it in the Dakotas and eastern Montana. Another low is stopping by the northeastern U.S. for today. In between lies us and the upper-level ridge maintaining its control over our weather setup.
With the south wind still planning on going at 15-25 mph and the upper ridge not going anywhere, we’re set for another warm and muggy night. Eventually, temperatures will drop out of the 80s but only bottom out in the middle 70s for Tuesday morning. The overnight is looking quiet with partly cloudy skies sticking with us.
Mother Nature is more than ready to send us back into another hot and humid day after we get past sunrise. Even though the heat and humidity for Tuesday may spark a few t-storms, most spots will stay dry. Everyone will see highs climb back into the lower 90s under partly sunny skies and a continued good south wind for the afternoon.
While the thermometer may say we’ll be in the lower to middle 90s for the afternoon, the humidity will make it feel like we’ll be pushing close to 100 in many spots.
Even with partly sunny skies sticking with us for Wednesday, the upper-level ridge actually gains strength as it continues to sit on top of us. After only dropping back into the upper 70s for Wednesday morning, we’ll shoot into the upper 90s to near 100 for highs.
With the humidity back up there on top of the very hot temperatures, it’ll make temperatures actually feel like 110 during the peak heating of Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday may see some scattered t-storms return, but we’ll stay in the upper 90s for highs with that humidity around. For the upcoming holiday weekend, the ridge starts to shift back to the west. That will start to send some more upper-level waves around the ridge and toward us through the weekend. We’ll have some isolated t-storms for Friday as highs fall back into the lower 90s.
For the 4th on Saturday, another wave will ride around the ridge and give us some isolated t-storms for the afternoon and early evening. Even with that wave, we’ll still keep things on the hot side with highs in the lower 90s.
The main center of the ridge will stay to our west as we head toward Sunday and early next week. That will keep some isolated t-storms in the forecast under partly sunny skies with highs in the lower 90s. If you’re curious as to how the rest of July is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.
Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
Long range forecast through July:
Next Tuesday-Saturday: Staying a bit hot for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for returning afternoon pop-up t-storms Wednesday through Saturday.
July 12th-18th: Warm the first half of the week with hot temps settling in the second half of the week. Pop up storms Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances again by the weekend. Tropics we need to watch possible development near Florida.
July 19th-25th: Mainly a hot week with pop up isolated storms each and every day. We will watch the tropics near Cuba.
July 26th- August 1st: Again mainly a hot week with highs well into the 90s. Mainly a dry week as well with thunderstorm chances by the weekend. Tropics need to be watch this week in the Gulf.