Latest updated blog – T-storms to wrap up the holiday weekend – Nick

While temperatures stay a bit warm
Memorialdayplanner

Good early Monday morning, everyone. We stayed warm for much of our Memorial Day Weekend with yesterday being no exception. Despite a few showers yesterday morning and some scattered t-storms skirting around the area yesterday afternoon, we saw highs bounce back into the middle 80s across the area. Unfortunately, we won’t get that warm for today with our weather setup changing as two storm systems begin to work in The first system is a cold front working out of western Kansas. It triggered a complex of strong to severe t-storms that stretched down into parts of Oklahoma and Texas.

Surfacemap

On top of this cold front ready to work into central and eastern Kansas today, the upper levels are coming into play as well. A stubborn upper level low will start to work out of the Rockies and into the Plains for today.

Uppersetup

If there’s a positive side to this setup, the upper low will work into parts of southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. That leaves a wind profile that isn’t too favorable for any widespread severe weather for us today. However, that doesn’t change the fact that we’ll have to contend with periods of t-storms for the day ahead. While some spots deal with some scattered rain by sunrise, everyone will start with mostly cloudy skies and lows in the middle to upper 60s.

Mondayam

With both the cold front working across the state of Kansas and the upper low on the journey, we’ll continue with periods of rain and t-storms for the lunch hour as temperatures are expected to climb into the middle 70s.

Mondaynoon

We don’t anticipate an all-day washout for many of you. With some dry time in between these periods of rain and t-storms, we should have afternoon highs climb into the upper 70s across the area. Needless to say, anyone that gets under any t-storms with some moderate to heavy rainfall will see their temperatures impacted.

Mondayaftn

Even though we hold onto the rain chances for this evening, some spots will again see breaks in the action as we stay mostly cloudy. We’ll see temperatures by tonight start to drop back into the upper 60s.

Mondaynite

With the cold front sticking around across eastern Kansas and the Upper Low staying in the Central Plains as we work into Tuesday morning, we’ll hold onto the periods of rain and t-storms with lows dropping back into the middle 60s.

Tuesdayam

We’ll still keep things warm as we work through a mostly cloudy Tuesday with periods of rain and t-storms around. Normal highs for much of this week will be right around 80° and we’ll only climb back into the upper 70s for Tuesday afternoon. For the middle of the week, this upper level low will not be in a hurry to move out. On top of that, the cold front will stall out across central Kansas for the middle of the week.

Wednesday

That keeps the cloudy and warm setup with periods of rain and t-storms around to take us into Thursday. By Friday, though, our upper level setup will start to change for the better. Not only will the stalled out front fall apart, the low will start to drift into the Deep South. While that takes the bulk of the rain chances out of the picture, we’ll hold onto a few t-storms under partly sunny skies for Friday as highs top out in the middle 70s.

Friday

By Saturday, the upper low will fall apart and leave us dry for the rest of the coming weekend. Highs will stay in the middle 70s before we really start to warm up as we head into June. As for rain amounts for the whole week, we could see between half an inch and an inch of rain just from Memorial Day’s rain chances alone. With the other rain chances for this week, we could see a total of 1 to 3 inches across the area. We’ll have to watch the rain chances closely to see if that can lead to any flash flooding potential.

Futurerain

While that may lead to a wet end to the month of May, thankfully Doug’s pattern has us trending a bit drier as we head into June. You can see how June and early July is shaping up with his long range forecast down below.

Have a great Monday and a safe Memorial Day!

Nick

Long range forecast into the middle of July:

Next Week: A warm start to the week with hot temperatures rolling in the rest of the week.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday.  Thunderstorms again on Friday and Saturday with a severe threat.

June 7th-13th:  A warm then hot start to the week with scattered storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This will cool us back down to warm temperatures the rest of the week.

June 14th-20th:  Mainly a warm week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday.  Scattered thunderstorms with our next system on Tuesday.  Then scattered thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday.  Severe threats Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 21st-27th:  Warm on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and mainly dry.  Thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday  with hot temperatures.  Some of those could be strong to severe.  Warm and dry heading into the weekend.

June 28th-July 4th:  A hot start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some of those could be severe on Wednesday.  Warm on Thursday and Friday but hot temps back in for the 4th.  Also, thunderstorm chances on the 4th.

July 5th-11th:  A warm to hot week with slight chances for storms on Wednesday.  Better chances for scattered storms on Friday and Saturday.