Latest updated blog – T-storms starting our day out – Nick
Warm day before we heat up for the weekend
Good Thursday morning, everyone. Despite everyone off to a mild start this morning, we have scattered t-storms popping up and working through as we get ready for the drive to work. The surface map setup down below shows the stationary front lifting away from eastern Missouri and ready to push closer to the Great Lakes. As for our next feature at the surface to play a role in our weather, the cold front out to the northwest will eventually work in later on. Overall, the rain chances this morning aren’t being driven by any features at the surface.
The answer lies in the upper-level setup. The setup has one low working east of St. Louis and another one working away from northwestern Missouri. Our rain chances are being driven by another wave that came out of the Rockies yesterday evening.
The t-storm chances this morning won’t be severe, but they will be quite strong with some pockets of heavy rain as they continue to work east and southeast. While these rain chances stick with us through much of the morning, we’ll see the activity start to subside by the lunch hour. With partly sunny skies around, we’re expecting lower 80s across much of the area to get the afternoon started.
With partly sunny skies staying in place along with an easterly breeze at 5-10 mph, we’ll keep warm across the area with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 80s.
Heading into late tonight and Friday morning, another wave will come out from the northwest and want to bring in another chance for scattered t-storms for parts of the area. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will only let temperatures drop back into the lower 70s.
After we get past our chance for scattered t-storms early Friday morning, the rest of the day will be dry as the weekend gets going. However, partly sunny skies and a returning south breeze will send us back into the lower 90s for afternoon highs.
Heading into Saturday, we’ll stay on the warmer side of the jet under the control of the upper-level high. While that will push highs back into the middle 90s for Saturday afternoon, another wave riding the northwest flow will give us a chance for some isolated t-storms during the afternoon and early evening.
As we go through late Saturday and Sunday, the cold front to our northwest will sweep through the region. While that won’t do anything for our hot Sunday afternoon with highs in the middle 90s, we’ll definitely see a change in our temperatures as we work into early next week. The upper-level setup for Monday has us back on the cooler side of the jet as the upper-level ridge starts retreating back to the west. While another wave in the northwest flow could give us isolated t-storms for Monday afternoon, this setup will only allow highs to climb into the middle 80s.
Heading into the middle of the week, the upper-level setup won’t see much in the way of changes. The northwest flow aloft will continue to bring in subtle waves through the region and bring us a chance for isolated t-storms each day for the week ahead. With the core jet stream to our west, though, that will thankfully keep highs in the 80s for the rest of the week.
For a look at the rest of August and the first days of September, Doug has you covered with the long range forecast down below.
Have a great Thursday!
Long range forecast through August:
Next Thursday-Saturday: Staying warm with highs in the 80s. With multiple waves coming through, we’ll hold on to isolated t-storm chances each day.
August 23rd-29th: Another warm start for Sunday and Monday before the heat returns for the rest of the week. T-storm chances are lined up for Sunday and for Thursday through Saturday.
August 30th-September 5th: A hot start, warm middle and hot finish to the week. Thunderstorms chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.