Latest updated blog – T-storms returning for Sunday – Nick
A fall-like week lined up for us
Good early Sunday morning, everyone. I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. First off, hats off to Jacob and Chris for holding down the fort and taking care of weather for the past few days. Let’s talk weather now. The past week saw a warm end to the summer, a drop in temperatures to kick off fall on Tuesday and a nice warm up through the rest of the week. The last few days were quite nice with skies staying quiet temperatures quick to respond after some chilly mornings. After we started the weekend with highs in the lower to middle 80s, we saw some middle to upper 80s return across the area for our Saturday.
While we’ll start Sunday off on a mild note and end the weekend with warm temperatures once again, we’ll be watching for mostly cloudy skies and t-storm chances to return to the area.
The surface setup below shows two systems working together to keep the south wind in place as we get into our Sunday. While high pressure continues to work toward the East Coast, we have our next cold front ready to work in from the northwest.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, a wave working across the Northern Plains is helping to push the cold front our way. Once that passes, we’ll be switching from the warm side of the jet to the cooler side of the jet as we head into a new work/school week.
The overnight hours remain dry while the incoming cold front starts bringing in partly cloudy skies before we hit sunrise. Despite the clouds, the southerly winds will keep us mild through the night and into Sunday morning with lows dropping off only into the middle 60s.
Have a look at the Future Track down below by 2 PM on our Sunday. The sudden jump from northerly winds north of I-44 to a southerly wind south of the Interstate? That’s the cold front that will be passing through the area. If you see the front pass through and your winds shift out of the north early in the afternoon, you’ll only make it into the middle to upper 70s for afternoon highs. Areas closer to the I-44 corridor will have a better shot of seeing highs push into the lower 80s before the front works through. In addition to the front starting to bring in cooler air, the front will bring mostly cloudy skies to the area with scattered showers and t-storms wanting to develop as the afternoon gets started.
Even with temperatures dropping into the 50s and 60s by the start of Sunday evening, we’ll still have moisture and lift behind the cold front to keep scattered showers and t-storms going across the region. Some of these storms could be a bit on the strong side with the worst only capable of some small hail and pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall.
As we head through the rest of the evening, the scattered t-storms will start pushing off to the southeast as they follow behind the cold front. Even though a few showers will still be possible by early Monday morning, we’ll get the bulk of the accumulating rainfall during our Sunday. With parts of the area still in some sort of a drought, any rain is certainly welcome. We should see a range of rain totals from a quarter of an inch on the low end to almost an inch on the high end.
By the time we start heading back to work and school on Monday morning, we should be done with our rain chances. Even with skies turning partly cloudy by sunrise, we’ll be quite a bit cooler behind the cold front. Plan on grabbing a jacket before you head out the door with morning lows Monday in the lower 50s.
While we do have partly to mostly sunny skies set for Monday afternoon, it will certainly feel like fall around the area with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 60s across much of the area.
If we look at the rest of the week, it isn’t just one front we have our eyes on. In the northwest flow of the jet stream, we’ll watch for front number 2 to start coming out of the northwest to start the week. Before it gets here, we’ll stay mild for Monday and Tuesday with highs in the middle to upper 60s under partly to mostly sunny skies.
Before front number 2 works through on Wednesday, we’ll stay dry as we hit the middle of the week with highs back around 80°. Once we get behind the front and we see a good upper-level low really push the jet stream far to our south, it will certainly feel like fall on Thursday with morning lows near 50° and highs back in the upper 60s once again.
Next weekend is looking quiet and mild to start with morning lows on Friday in the middle 40s before we see the mercury jump back into the lower 60s. We’ll keep an eye on another system on Saturday to see if it can bring a few isolated showers or t-storms our way. We’ll stay mild for Saturday. Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll continue to stay mild as we wrap up September and head into October . If you’re curious as to how that’s looking, Doug has you covered with his long-range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Sunday!
October 4th-10th: Mainly a mild and calm week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.
October 11th-18th: A mild start but a cool end of the week. Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
October 19th-25th: Mainly a mild week with cooler temperatures by the weekend. Rain chances on Monday, then again Thursday through Friday.