Latest updated blog – T-storm chances through the middle of the week – Nick

Much needed dry time in sight

Good Tuesday evening, everyone. Hopefully, everyone got a chance to enjoy some dry time outside back on our Memorial Day in between our AM round of rain and the afternoon/evening round of t-storms. We certainly did warm back up close to 80 on Monday before we turned a little cooler today. We hit highs in the middle 70s this afternoon despite additional rain chances that continue to add up. The rain this morning and the few scattered showers around Joplin Regional pushed the tally today to .59″ and the monthly tally over 8 inches of rain. Needless to say, our yearly tally is above normal by 17″ and is fairly identical to the wet year-to-date tally back last year.


We need a good stretch to dry things out after all the rain we’ve seen yesterday and over the past few weeks. Once we hit sunset this evening, we’ll see our rain chances fade away to keep things quiet for the overnight and Wednesday morning. Despite additional t-storm chances by the afternoon ahead of us, we’ll stay mild with highs in the lower to middle 70s.


Even with some dry time in the works for us tonight and to start Wednesday out, we can’t shake the rainy/stormy pattern just yet. Our stationary front that worked through eastern Kansas yesterday is now stuck in western Missouri. Fortunately, a surface low in Iowa is keeping any severe t-storms to the north of us this evening.


With the stationary front working together with our main upper level low spinning across the Central and Southern Plains, we’re not shaking off the rain chances just yet. The plus side with our look at the jet stream is what lies to our west. Even though that upper level ridge is keeping the heat in place across the Southwest, we’ll eventually see part of that ridge sneak in by the end of the week.


Until that happens, the upper low will keep mostly cloudy skies in place through the evening and into Wednesday morning. Once we get past sunset this evening, we’ll keep things dry as overnight lows drop back to about 60 in the morning.


While we stay dry through the morning and into the start of the afternoon, the mostly cloudy skies will limit how warm we’ll get for Wednesday. Even with highs planning on topping out around 73 for a mild afternoon ahead of us, that will be enough warmth for the upper low to fire up scattered showers and t-storms across the area. Fortunately, we aren’t expecting anything strong or severe.


Just like this evening, the t-storm chances will fade away as the sun sets Wednesday evening. The mostly cloudy skies will stick with us as overnight lows drop back to about 60.


As long as the upper lows is close enough to our area as it slowly shifts through Arkansas on Thursday, that will spawn additional rain and t-storms for Thursday across our area. Despite that, we’ll stay mild with highs in the middle 70s.


Thankfully, the upper low lifts away and we’ll start to have our weather influenced by the upper level ridge out to the west. Before it brings in the warmth for the coming weekend, we’ll stay dry and a bit warm for Friday with highs in the middle 70s.


Much of the weekend and early next week will be a fairly dry stretch of weather that we need after seeing quite a bit of rain over the past few weeks. As the upper ridge continues to build in, we’ll sneak in to the upper 70s for Saturday and Sunday before highs return to the 80s for early next week. There is a slim chance for a few isolated t-storms for next Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, they’ll be spotty in nature and shouldn’t bring any heavy rainfall our way. To see how we look as we head through the month of June and early July, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.

Have a good night and a great Wednesday!


Long range forecast into the middle of July:

Next Week: Warm temperatures turning a bit hot by the end of the week. Thunderstorms return for Friday and Saturday with a severe threat.

June 7th-13th:  A warm then hot start to the week with scattered storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This will cool us back down to warm temperatures the rest of the week.

June 14th-20th:  Mainly a warm week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday.  Scattered thunderstorms with our next system on Tuesday.  Then scattered thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday.  Severe threats Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 21st-27th:  Warm on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and mainly dry.  Thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday  with hot temperatures.  Some of those could be strong to severe.  Warm and dry heading into the weekend.

June 28th-July 4th:  A hot start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some of those could be severe on Wednesday.  Warm on Thursday and Friday but hot temps back in for the 4th.  Also, thunderstorm chances on the 4th.

July 5th-11th:  A warm to hot week with slight chances for storms on Wednesday.  Better chances for scattered storms on Friday and Saturday.