Latest updated blog – Summer heat back in action today – Nick
Additional t-storm chances continue to line up
Good Monday morning, everyone. Hopefully, you all managed to enjoy the weekend despite the summer heat returning and the few rounds of rain and t-storms across parts of the area yesterday. If you missed any of the rain chances on Sunday, more rain chances are lining up. Looking at our surface setup below, our south wind will continue today our next cold front starts working out of the Nebraska and the Northern Plains.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, we had one wave come out of Nebraska yesterday evening and ride along the edge of our upper-level ridge. With this setup planning on staying in place for today, the ridge will keep us hot and humid while we watch for another wave to develop to our northwest.
Before both the cold front and the next upper-level wave bring t-storm chances back into the picture, we’re all starting quiet and warm this morning with lows in the middle to upper 70s. After sunrise, we’ll waste no time warming up through the rest of the morning. Mostly sunny skies and a good south wind will send us into the upper 80s by lunchtime.
While we expect the afternoon to stay dry, we should have some partly sunny skies working back in ahead of the advancing cold front. Even with some cloud cover trying to sneak back in during the afternoon, we’ll have a hot afternoon with highs back in the middle 90s.
Not only will it be hot once again, everyone will have the humidity to contend with. At the peak heating of the afternoon, it’ll feel like it’s between 100° and 105° outside.
Once we get into this evening, t-storms that have developed to our north and west will start to make an advance to our area. While the storms to the north of us could be severe with wind and hail being the main threats, we’re expecting the advancing t-storms to not pack quite a punch by the time they work in. Even with that being the case, these t-storms could bring in some rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall for tonight.
With the cold front planning on stalling out along the I-44 corridor by Tuesday morning, we’ll hold onto the t-storm chances through the night and into the AM drive. The rain chances should be able to give us a mild start to Tuesday morning with lows around 70°.
With the front retreating back to the north as a warm front and the upper wave working off to the east, we’ll keep things dry for late Tuesday morning and going into Tuesday afternoon. Even though, we get a brief break from the 90s, most spots will stay quite warm for Tuesday afternoon with highs in the upper 80s.
The rest of the week will stay a bit active with the jet stream passing overhead. With another wave passing by and interacting with the stalled out front across central Missouri, we’ll have another shot for scattered t-storms on our Wednesday. With the upper ridge staying in control of our temperatures, we’ll go back into the heat with highs in the lower 90s.
Heading to the end of the week, another wave will develop to our north and clip us as we work into Thursday and Friday. Even though we’ll stay hot with temperatures in the 90s, you can see that this wave will bring in another shot for scattered t-storms on Thursday.
Once we get past another day with t-storm chances with that wave on Friday, the wave will move on and give us a complete day of quiet weather for Saturday. While Saturday does stay quiet, we’ll stay hot and humid once again with highs in the middle 90s across the region.
With these additional rounds of rain lining up for a good portion of this week, we’ll keep an eye on where they setup and how they’ll track. If we see bouts of moderate to heavy rain looking more likely throughout the week, we’ll have to keep a close eye on flooding concerns before we get a completely dry day on Saturday. If you’re curious as to how the rest of August and early September is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.
Have a great Monday!
Long range forecast through August:
Next Week: A hot start to the week, but back to 80s for highs the second half of the week. With multiple waves working through. Isolated storm chances each day.
August 23rd-29th: Another warm start for Sunday and Monday before the heat returns for the rest of the week. T-storm chances are lined up for Sunday and for Thursday through Saturday.
August 30th-September 5th: A hot start, warm middle and hot finish to the week. Thunderstorms chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.