Latest updated blog – Strong to severe t-storms on the way tonight – Nick
Before we really warm up for the middle of the week
Good Monday evening, everyone. We managed to stay dry so far today, but we definitely had some areas of fog to start our Monday out. If there was a positive to the fog and clouds this morning, it only allowed lows to drop into the middle to upper 40s. The afternoon saw us take advantage of some sunshine to get afternoon highs in the lower to middle 60s. If you’re wanting to get some fresh air this evening, we’ll stay dry while we turn a bit chilly. We’ll see our chilly night turn mild again for Tuesday afternoon, but we’ll also have some t-storms to keep an eye on in between.
Where are those t-storm chances going to come from tonight? We have a surface system getting into action across southwestern Kansas.
Upstairs, we also have an upper level disturbance coming out of the Rocky Mountains. That will also aid in our t-storm chances very late tonight while our weekend wave continues to sit across the Pacific Northwest.
Our focus for Tuesday will be the developing t-storms to our west working in during the early morning hours. These expected t-storms will be strong to severe. The main timing looks to be between 4 AM and 8 AM with wind, hail and heavy rain being the main threats. With this setup, we’re keeping the tornado threat low.
If you need to run some errands this evening or want to get outside, we’ll stay dry as we turn chilly. The t-storms won’t start developing and heading our way until we get past 3 or 4 AM going into our Tuesday.
As the clouds and the t-storms get us started for Tuesday morning, that will keep temperatures in the lower 50s. By 8 AM, we’ll still hold onto the strong to severe t-storms for a good portion of the area.
As we go into the afternoon, the t-storms will be off to our east and we’ll focus on drying out for the afternoon. Even with some returning sun for the afternoon, the northeast breeze will only let us warm into the middle 60s for afternoon highs.
As far as rain goes, we just don’t need anymore rain right now. However, some pockets of heavy rain with the expected t-storms could lead to areas picking up amounts between half an inch to an inch. We can’t rule out some isolated higher amounts before we dry out Tuesday afternoon.
Once this system gets out of here, we’ll have another 2 day stretch of dry weather to enjoy. We’ll see partly sunny skies return for Wednesday as highs climb back into the lower to middle 70s.
Thursday is looking like the warmest day of the week (and the season so far) as highs look to climb into the lower 80s. However, the wave in the Pacific Northwest will roll in and bring back rain and t-storm chances for Friday and Saturday.
In addition to returning rain chances for the first part of the weekend, we’ll go from a mild Friday to a chilly Saturday and Sunday. We should be able to turn mild again as we head into early next week. Don’t forget that Doug has your long range forecast out into early May down below.
Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
Long range forecast through early May:
Next Week: Staying mild through the week with slight chances for storms on Wednesday with a fast moving storm system. Then again, better chances for thunderstorms on Friday that could be on the strong side. A little cooler into the weekend.
April 6th-10th: Again, mainly a mild week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and then again on Thursday and Friday. Those could be strong to severe. Cooling down a bit for the weekend.
April 11th-18th: A cool start but a mild finish to the week. We will have two system from Monday through Thursday. This will give us at least slight chances for rain these day. But thunderstorms in by Saturday.
April 19th-25th: A mild week with slight chances for storms on Sunday. Good chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.
April 26th-May 2nd: Mild week with storms on Tuesday and then slight chances on Friday.