Latest updated blog – Staying warm once again – Nick

No storm systems until next week

Good Tuesday evening, everyone. Our quiet and warm streak continued once again today after our chilly start this morning. Once we got out of the middle to upper 50s this morning, we trended just a bit warmer compared to our highs around 80 yesterday. We went just above our average high of 83 today. However, it was comfortably warm with our highs in the middle 80s this afternoon and humidity staying quite nice.


While not as chilly as the past few nights with lows in the middle to upper 50s, most spots will turn a bit chilly tonight with lows around 61 before we warm back up once again for Wednesday.


Breaking down the weather setup below, we’ll start with the surface map showing not much happening once again. We note the stationary front to our south is trying to halt Hurricane Sally’s northern progression. Nonetheless, Sally will make landfall on Wednesday as it will slowly continue to the north and eventually northeast. To our north, we have a cold front that’ll work in within the next 24 to 36 hours.


Upstairs at the jet stream level, the upper level ridge centered over the southern Rockies is not letting any major storm systems get going to our west. That being said, a weak wave is working across northeastern Oklahoma. That will keep clouds in here through the night and may bring a sprinkle or random shower our way before it moves on. The only big system that’s being picked up from the upper levels is Sally along the Gulf Coast.


With our weak wave working across the area tonight and through Wednesday morning, we’ll have partly to mostly cloudy skies passing through and the slightest chance for a sprinkle or random light shower. The cloud cover won’t lead us to a chilly night, but we will drop back near 61 around the Joplin area. Some outlying areas to our northwest could sneak back into the upper 50s before we get to sunrise.


After we get started on a mainly mild note for our Wednesday morning, a light breeze from the east and northeast won’t stop us from warming up once again. By the lunch hour, we’ll have the entire area back in the upper 70s as we get the afternoon started.


With a light northeast breeze keeping the humidity fairly comfy under partly sunny skies, we’ll enjoy another warm afternoon with highs back in the middle 80s across the board.


Heading into Thursday morning, the front to the north will start to work in. One thing we can tell you right off the bat is that this front won’t have anywhere near enough moisture to bring rain chances into the area. It will, however, keep us partly cloudy for Wednesday night and Thursday morning as low drop back near 60 in Joplin and lower 60s outside of the city.


While the front won’t do anything for us as far as rain chances go, we’ll turn the thermostat down a little for Thursday afternoon with highs topping out in the lower 80s.


As for Sally, there was a slim chance that it could have affected our weather if it could send some moisture our way. Over the course of this past weekend and the past few days, though, the storm diverged from its potential landfall near New Orleans and southern Mississippi and will make landfall around Dauphan Island and Gulf Shores in southern Alabama. Once it makes landfall, it will turn more to the northeast and work across Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina as we head into the weekend. This track ensures that any and all tropical moisture will stay to our southeast.


Looking into the weekend, the jet stream setup for Friday pretty much tells the tale of how we’ll look through Sunday. The ridge may be just to our west and southwest for the weekend. Being close enough, it will keep the jet stream on top of us and keep us in the upper 70s to lower 80s for afternoon highs. With no systems immediately lining up along the jet, we’ll stay dry through the weekend.


We have a stretch of 7 days where we won’t have any big systems heading our way. You can see how the jet setup below keeps us warm and dry for Tuesday. However, note the upper-level low working across the Pacific Northwest and a few kinks in the jet to our west. This setup will eventually bring in a front by next Wednesday and bring in our next good chance for scattered rain and t-storms.


If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of the month and into the first few days of October, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!


Next Wednesday-Saturday:  Staying warm with a system keeping rain chances around for Wednesday.  With this system, we will cool down a bit the rest of the week with mild temperatures.  Slight chances for rain will return by the weekend.

September 27th-October 3rd:  A chilly start to the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week.  Rain chances on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.