Latest updated blog – Staying warm for this week – Nick
Watching Sally possibly play a role in the extended forecast
Good late Sunday evening, everyone. Even with a haze to the sky to wrap up our weekend, we were able to end on another warm note across the area. Temperatures to start your Sunday morning out were a bit chillier than our Saturday morning. Nonetheless, we were able to go from our chilly start in the middle to upper 50s right back into the upper 70s in Joplin and across the whole area.
As we get ready to kick off a new work/school week, Mother Nature will just hit the repeat button for us. Once we get past another chilly start for Monday morning, we’ll have no problem warming back up through the day.
Breaking down the jet stream setup below, the upper-ridge that was centered over the western US for much of last week is finally beginning to shift back into the Rockies. Hopefully, this shift in the ridge gives firefighters out in the west a better chance to start containing some of the wildfires that are still burning. Even with the northwest flow aloft, we don’t have any immediate systems ready to ride in. Plus, the jet to the southwest of us will keep temperatures a little cooler than normal to start the week out.
At the surface, we have high pressure to keep the northeasterly breeze going for our Monday and to keep skies quiet. We do notice a stationary front getting its act together across the northern Plains and the northern Rockies. Even though it wants to become a factor in the extended forecast, it’ll stay to our northwest for the next few days.
While some spots will see some passing clouds through the night and into Monday morning, others will see mostly clear skies trying to lead to a few areas of patchy fog. Otherwise, everyone will start off chilly for Monday morning as lows drop into the middle to upper 50s.
Even with partly to mostly sunny skies and a light northeasterly breeze through the day, we won’t have any problems warming back up across the area. By lunchtime, we’ll have the area back in the middle 70s as the afternoon begins.
For the afternoon, it will be warm with highs right around 80°. Fortunately, temperatures will stay below our normal highs in the lower to middle 80s. Combine that with dew points around 60°, it will be very comfortable if you’ll be out and about for the day.
While we stay quiet for Monday evening, we’ll head for another chilly night with lows by Tuesday morning dropping back into the upper 50s.
Tuesday afternoon will be another repeat of how our Monday is shaping up. We’ll keep quiet with partly sunny skies and comfortably warm with highs in the lower 80s across the region.
While we stay quiet for Tuesday, we’ll also keep an eye on Tropical Storm Sally working across the northern Gulf of Mexico. While the 10 PM Advisory shows it with 60 mph winds, it’ll take advantage of favorable wind shear and extremely warm Gulf waters and strengthen over the next few days. Sally will become a Category 1 Hurricane Monday evening before it takes aim at the Louisiana and Mississippi coastline. By the time Sally starts affecting land by Tuesday morning, it could be a strong Category 1 Hurricane with 90 mph winds or potentially a brief Category 2.
Once Sally is on land, the jet stream will grab it on Wednesday and start to steer it through the middle of the week. Even with it staying a good distance to our southeast, any moisture from Sally will try to head our way. By that time, we’ll have that stationary front to our north work in as a cold front and try to bring in a few showers on Wednesday and a few t-storms for Thursday. Otherwise, we’ll stay warm in the lower 80s through the middle of the week.
By the start of the weekend, the upper ridge will shift into western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While that keeps the heat off to our west, it will push the jet stream back on top of the region. For us, that means we’ll keep temperatures near normal with morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and highs in the lower 80s.
If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of the month and into the first few days of October, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
Next Week: A warm start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. With this system, we will cool down a bit the rest of the week with mild temperatures. Slight chances for rain will return by the weekend.
September 27th-October 3rd: A chilly start to the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Rain chances on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.