Latest updated blog – Staying warm for the final day of summer – Nick
Tropical moisture heading our way for the first day of fall
Good late Sunday evening, everyone. Our final Sunday of the summer season has come to an end. It sure didn’t feel like summer this morning as lows dropped back into the upper 40s and lower 50s across the region. Fortunately, Mother Nature gave us another round of quiet and mostly sunny skies for today. That sent temperatures back into the right direction as highs went into the upper 70s and lower 80s. With the humidity staying fairly low, it felt comfortable once again for any outdoor plans.
It’s still a bit hard to believe that we’re approaching the start of the fall season on Tuesday. Before we see changes work in for Tuesday, we’ll stay quiet and warm once again for our last day of the official summer season. While it won’t be as chilly to start Monday morning out, we’ll head back for another warm afternoon across the area.
The surface setup below continues to have nothing on top of us. Even though our southeasterly breeze is still being brought in by high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes, the cold front to our northwest will start working into Canada over the next few days. If anything on the surface is going to bring a change to our weather, it will be some tropical moisture coming from Beta in the western Gulf of Mexico.
The upper-level setup continues to show the upper low to our northwest head into Canada. That’s what will take the cold front into Canada along with it. We managed to sneak back into the warmer side of the jet with our highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s today. While a weak upper-level ridge managed to develop across the Southeast, the main feature on here is still Tropical Storm Beta that the jet stream will try and grab over the next few days.
We’ll stay quiet with mostly clear skies and a light southeast breeze through the night and into Monday morning. While that won’t lead to the cool start we had this morning, we will see another chilly morning with lows back in the middle 50s across the area.
After we spend the morning and start the afternoon with mostly sunny skies, we can’t rule out some partly sunny skies trying to sneak in from the south as some tropical moisture tries to start sneaking in. Despite that, we’ll start the afternoon in the middle 70s and see highs top out around 80° across the region.
Heading into Monday evening and Tuesday morning, we’ll see mostly cloudy skies return from the south. While we stay dry for Monday evening, we can’t rule out a few showers trying to sneak in by early Tuesday morning. This cloud cover will keep temperatures mild for Tuesday morning with lows only dropping back into the lower 60s.
For our first day of fall, mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain chances for our southern counties will certainly make it feel like fall. This projected setup will only allow temperatures to climb into the lower 70s for afternoon highs all across the area.
The increasing clouds and rain chances by Tuesday will be due to tropical moisture being pulled in from Tropical Storm Beta. The last look we had on Beta showed it just off the Texas Gulf Coast with wind speeds maxed out at 60 mph. It’ll make landfall near Port O’Connor, TX by late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening and start working to the northeast on Tuesday. The main track keeps Beta well to our southeast before it dissipates in northeastern Louisiana by Thursday evening.
Even with Beta staying to our south, some of the tropical moisture will interact with a developing upper-level low just to our south as it passes nearby on Tuesday and Wednesday. Until this feature clears out by Thursday, this will keep mostly cloudy skies and some rain chances in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs staying in the lower 70s.
While it’s nice to see some rain chances sneak back in for Tuesday and Wednesday, we’re expecting the bulk of the rainfall to stay to our south and southeast near Beta. Still, our rain chances could bring rain amounts for some spots between a tenth of an inch to half an inch before it clears out by Thursday morning.
By Thursday and Friday, a weak upper-level high will build into our area. Thankfully, it’s not strong enough to send us back into the heat. That being said, it will keep highs in the lower to middle 80s under mostly sunny skies.
While the weekend starts off on a quiet note, we’ll have an upper-level trough and a cold front work in starting on Saturday and into Sunday. You can see what this does for us down below. Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll keep an eye out for t-storm chances Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday morning.
Behind the front, we’ll drop back into the middle 70s for next Sunday with clearing skies through the day. If you’re curious as to how we’ll wrap up September and how October is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long-range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
Next Monday-Saturday: Behind Sunday’s cold front, we’ll stay mild from Monday through the middle of the week. We’ll try to warm back up by the weekend.
October 4th-10th: Mainly a mild and calm week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.
October 11th-18th: A mild start but a cool end of the week. Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
October 19th-25th: Mainly a mild week with cooler temperatures by the weekend. Rain chances on Monday, then again Thursday through Friday.