Latest updated blog – Staying hot & humid for Sunday

Rain chances lining up for the week ahead

Good late Saturday evening, everyone. It turns out that our chances for scattered rain and t-storms to start the day were a little more widespread than we expected. That’s okay with us since we still need to catch up on rainfall across the area. While the storms this morning weren’t severe, the strongest did bring some moderate to heavy rainfall in spots. The bullseye for most of the rain were areas along US 69 where radar estimates suggested areas along and near that stretch of road saw between 1 and 2 inches of rain. Overall, places that saw rain today averaged out under half an inch.


If you didn’t see any rain from this morning or are still clamoring for more, we have more rain chances wanting to line up for the week ahead. The surface setup below has the warm front that came through today stalled off to our east. While we definitely stay on the hot side of that front, we’re also keeping an eye on our next cold front that will make a run for the area early next week.


Looking at the upper-level setup, we have the upper-level ridge centered across the state of Texas. While we stay under its influence for Sunday and much of next week with temperatures staying mainly on the hot side, look at the wave working across Kansas and Nebraska. While that wave passes by for Sunday, we’ll continue to watch for other waves to develop and ride along the edge of the ridge through the coming week.


If you call the wave out in Kansas and Nebraska wave number 1, that will mainly pass to our north as we work into Sunday. With it passing close to the area, though, we’ll have skies turning partly cloudy by sunrise with a few showers possible in a few spots. Whether or not you see any showers Sunday morning, we’ll start off very mild (if not a bit warm) with lows in the middle 70s across the area.


Any slight rain chances we have to start the morning out will be gone by the time we get the afternoon started. With that said, we’ll have temperatures wasting no time warming up through the morning and they’ll push into the upper 80s by the time we hit the lunch hour.


While we may start the afternoon out with partly sunny skies, the trend seems to have the skies turn mostly sunny through the rest of the day. With a south wind picking up to 10-20 mph and gusts near 25 through the afternoon, that will be enough to send afternoon highs into the middle 90s across the area.


With the humidity staying a bit high for Sunday, it will feel warmer than what the thermometer will say. When we hit our afternoon highs in the middle 90s, the humidity will make it feel like it’s between 100 and 105.


Heading into Sunday evening and Monday morning, we’ll start out with mostly clear skies before partly cloudy skies work back in by the morning. With the south breeze still in place and gusts close to 20 mph, we’ll only drop back into the middle 70s once again to start Monday morning out.


The cold front working out of the northwest will start working into northern Kansas and northern Missouri throughout our Monday. While we stay hot and humid ahead of the cold front with highs back in the middle 90s, note the t-storms that want to develop just to our northwest late Monday afternoon.


As the cold front starts to work close to the area late Monday afternoon and Monday evening, we’ll have another upper-level wave develop over Kansas and ride along the edge of the upper level ridge. As it works close by Monday and works into northern Missouri on Tuesday, that will keep a good chance for t-storms in the forecast late Monday and for much of Tuesday. Plus, the clouds and the rain chances may keep us only in the upper 80s for highs on Tuesday.


We may start with some scattered t-storms with that wave close by on Wednesday morning. As the day rolls on, it scoots off to the east and we’ll trend drier with partly sunny skies taking us back into the lower 90s for highs.


For Thursday and early Friday, we’ll have another wave develop across parts of Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa. That will bring another chance for t-storms our way for Thursday and Friday morning. This bout of rain chances will keep highs right around 90 as we head into the start of the weekend.


We may need to keep a careful eye on these rounds of rain lining up for the week ahead. An early look at the Rain Tracker shows rain totals between Sunday and Friday afternoon ranging between half an inch and up to 2.5 inches. These may be the minimum of what we could see. Any of our rain chances lining up could bring additional moderate to heavy pockets of rain. Not only could that lead to higher amounts in some spots, it could lead to a potential for some flooding if we can’t spread the rounds of rain out throughout the week. It’s something we’ll continue to keep an eye on as we proceed through the week.


Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll have a break on Saturday as we stay quiet, hot and humid. For a look at how the rest of August and early September is shaping up, Doug has you covered with the long range forecast down below.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!


Long range forecast through August:

August 16th-22nd:  A hot start to the week, but back to 80s for highs the second half of the week.  With multiple waves working through.  Isolated storm chances each day.

August 23rd-29th:  Another warm start for Sunday and Monday before the heat returns for the rest of the week. T-storm chances are lined up for Sunday and for Thursday through Saturday.

August 30th-September 5th:  A hot start, warm middle and hot finish to the week.  Thunderstorms chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.