Latest updated blog – Staying dry & mild for Thursday – Nick
Before rain chances sneak in very soon
Good Wednesday evening, everyone. Our mild streak continues as we head closer to the weekend. After we saw highs top out around 60 yesterday, we saw our highs today climb into the upper 60s. Not only is that a good rebound after we started around 40 this morning, our highs today were warmer than our average high of 56 at this point in the month of March.
Breaking down our weather setup, our setup is still in control by high pressure along the Texas Coast. While a cold front to our north will continue to lift off to our north and east, the frontal system we’re watching is the one coming out of the Southwestern US.
The upper-level setup shows us still under the ridge powered by an upper-level high centered across Mexico and stretching toward Cuba. We’ll enjoy another mild Thursday with this ridge in place before the upper-level low over California and Nevada pushes that front close by for Friday.
Before that system heads our way, we’ll stay quiet for the rest of the night and for Thursday morning under mostly clear skies. With a light south breeze at 5-10, we’ll have areas around Joplin bottom out around 41 with some outlying areas dropping back into the upper 30s.
Our mostly sunny skies during the morning hours will start to turn partly sunny as we get into the afternoon. With the upper-level ridge still under control, we’ll stay dry for much of the day and mild with highs pushing into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
The cloud cover on the way in for Thursday afternoon is ahead of that surface front coming in from the west and the upper low that’ll work into Kansas and Oklahoma Thursday evening. Out west, that setup will provide parts of western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas with t-storm chances as Thursday afternoon rolls into Thursday evening.
The rain chances will start to sneak in very late Thursday night and during the overnight as we roll into Friday morning. With cloudy skies and scattered showers sneaking in, that will allow lows to drop into the middle to upper 40s across the region.
This system will slide along just to our southwest as we roll through our Friday. With it passing close to us, though, we’ll hold on to cloud cover and periods of scattered showers across the region. Couple that with a northeast breeze, we’ll only see highs topping out in the 50s for a chilly start to our weekend.
As far as expected rainfall goes, the moisture is lacking with this system. For most, we’ll be lucky if we can get a tenth of an inch on average across the region. With the better availability of moisture staying out in central Oklahoma and south central Kansas, that’s where the higher rain amounts will stay.
Fortunately, that’s the only bump in the road for our weekend forecast. That system moves on Friday night and we see another upper-level ridge work back on top of us. Mostly sunny skies on Saturday will send highs back into the upper 50s and we’ll be back near 60 under partly sunny skies for Sunday.
While we stay quiet and mild for Monday with highs in the lower 60s under partly sunny skies, we’ll watch for that upper low for early next week change things up by Tuesday. Latest indications show rain chances working in as we work through Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday evening.
We’ll stay dry and mostly cloudy for Wednesday before another system works in with rain and t-storm chances for Thursday and Friday of next week. If you’re wondering how we look for the rest of March and the first few days of April, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.
Have a good night and a great Thursday!
Next Thursday-Saturday: We’ll stay mild for Thursday and Friday. However, we’ll see rain chances return for Thursday and t-storm chances for Friday. We’ll cool down a little under partly sunny skies for Saturday.
March 14th-20th: We’ll start on a mild note for Sunday before we temporarily cool down for Monday. We’ll turn mild for Tuesday and Wednesday before we cool down for Thursday and Friday. We’ll turn mild again for Saturday. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday and t-storm chances for Wednesday and Thursday.
March 21st-27th: We’ll be mild for Sunday and Monday before we turn briefly cooler for Tuesday. A brief jump to a mild Wednesday before we turn cool for Thursday, cold for Friday and cool again for Saturday. We’ll watch for slight rain chances on Monday and better rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday.
March 28th-April 3rd: Cool temperatures for Sunday and Monday. We’ll briefly turn mild for much of the week before we cool back down by Saturday. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, rain chances on Wednesday, t-storm chances on Thursday, rain chances on Friday and rain/snow chances on Saturday.