Latest updated blog – Staying dry and mild again for today – Nick
Watching returning rain and t-storm chances later on this week
Good Tuesday morning, everyone. It’s no surprise that we’re off to another chilly start once again this morning. Even though we do plan on being a bit warmer as we go throughout the day, we’ll still be influenced by two storm systems that have ventured off to the east. The first is the cold front that’s stuck across the Ohio River Valley and working into the Deep South. The flow around the low pressure will keep the northerly breeze in place for today and keep the cloud cover in play.
Not only that, a stubborn upper level low is stuck over parts of Illinois and Indiana. That’s holding up a building upper level ridge just to our west and the next upper low in the western parts of the country.
Even if our stubborn upper level low is going to keep cloud cover around this morning and throughout the day, at least we can look forward to a dry day. We just need to get past a chilly start near 50 this morning.
With some pockets of sun under a light north breeze, we will trend a bit warmer for the afternoon compared to yesterday. Even though our normal highs should be in the upper 70s, we’ll still have a mild afternoon with highs around 70 degrees across the area.
By Wednesday, the upper low to our east will finally start to move along and allow the upper ridge out west to have more control of our weather setup. We’ll still have mostly cloudy skies in place as the last system departs, but we will see highs climb back into the middle 70s for Wednesday afternoon. We’ll also keep an eye out for a few showers mainly on the Missouri side as we work into Wednesday afternoon.
Heading into Thursday, we’ll finally get under the warm side of the upper level ridge. The day looks to start on a partly cloudy and mild note. We’ll quickly push into the middle 70s by lunchtime and see afternoon highs climb back up to 81 degrees. However, our next wave out west will also want to ride in and bring in isolated t-storms for Thursday afternoon.
Sticking with Doug’s pattern, the t-storm chances will certainly want to stick with us as we begin the Memorial Day Weekend. We’ll stay warm for Friday and Saturday with isolated t-storm chances popping up for each afternoon.
We’ll continue to see another upper level wave work in for Sunday and riding above a warm front that will be draped across the area. That will result in scattered t-storms for Sunday and a possible moderate severe threat we’ll need to watch.
In what seems like clockwork each year, we’ll hold onto the warm temperatures and t-storm chances for Memorial Day. We’ll have a cold front work in from the west with an upper level wave working through at the jet stream level. Unfortunately, we’ll have to hold onto a moderate severe threat for the holiday.
Once we get past the holiday weekend, we’ll have a few t-storms possible as we stay warm on Tuesday. We’ll watch for a low-to-moderate severe threat for the 27th and 28th before we see another break in the action for next Friday and Saturday. We’ll wrap up the month and head into the June with a low severe threat to watch (31st and 1st) before we see the bulk of our severe weather chances this season fade away.
For the rest of Doug’s long range forecast through early July, he has you covered with his long range forecast down below.
Have a great Tuesday!
Long range forecast into the middle of July:
Next Week: Scattered thunderstorms with several waves from Sunday through Wednesday as we stay warm. Severe threat Sunday, Monday and Wednesday. The highest severe threat will be on Sunday.
May 31st-June 6th: Mainly a hot week and mainly dry. Chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday with a low severe threat.
June 7th-13th: A hot start with warm temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday with a severe threat each of those day.
June 14th-20th: Mainly a warm week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms with our next system on Tuesday. Then scattered thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday. Severe threats Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.
June 21st-27th: Warm on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and mainly dry. Thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday with hot temperatures. Some of those could be strong to severe. Warm and dry heading into the weekend.
June 28th-July 4th: A hot start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of those could be severe on Wednesday. Warm on Thursday and Friday but hot temps back in for the 4th. Also, thunderstorm chances on the 4th.
July 5th-11th: A warm to hot week with slight chances for storms on Wednesday. Better chances for scattered storms on Friday and Saturday.