Latest updated blog – Staying a bit cooler than normal today – Nick

Before a warming trend kicks in later this week

Good Monday morning, everyone. We have managed to keep things quiet with some cloud cover rotating through the area to start the morning out. Before we had some cloud cover start sneaking back in, we had mostly clear skies and a light northwest breeze bring us to the chilly start that everyone has this morning. Our northwest wind, chilly temperatures and the returning cloud cover is courtesy of our last cold front that left us yesterday. Even though it’s off to the east, the northwest flow behind the system will play a role in our forecast today.


In addition to the northwest flow behind the cold front playing a role in our weather for today, so will the jet stream setup. While the pair of upper level lows pushed our front to the east, the upper low working into Illinois will not be in much of a hurry to scoot far enough to the east. Ahead of another upper level low in the Pacific, an upper level ridge with building warm air will stay just to our west to start the week out.


For us, this setup is leaving everyone with a chilly start to the day. If the lower 50s are a little too cool for you this late in the month of May, it probably won’t hurt to have the jacket handy before you head out the door.


We’ll hold on to mainly partly sunny skies through the rest of the morning with maybe a few spots seeing a bit more cloud cover than the rest. The general rule of thumb for today will be partly sunny skies to maintain control with a northwest wind at 5-15 mph (gusts near 20 in the afternoon). That setup will keep us below our normal highs in the upper 70s, but we’ll still have a mild afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to near 70°.


After today, the stubborn upper low to our east will primarily hold firm across the Ohio River and Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday. While that keeps rain chances away, that keeps us mild with the warmer air out across the Central Plains and the Eastern Rockies.


For Thursday and heading into the holiday weekend, the eastern upper low will finally lift off toward the Northeast. That will finally allow the upper level ridge to start working in. As it does, that will send highs back into the middle 70s for Thursday and back into the 80s for much of the upcoming holiday weekend. There will be a con to this returning setup, though.


Sticking with Doug’s pattern, the returning jet setup for later this week will also allow t-storm chances to return. We could see a few isolated t-storms on Thursday, but we’ll have scattered t-storm chances start picking up on Friday and carrying us through much of our warm Memorial Day Weekend. We’ll also keep an eye on severe weather chances for Saturday through Memorial Day and into next Wednesday as temperatures stay warm. For the rest of Doug’s long range forecast through the middle of July, he has you covered down below.

Have a great Monday!


Long range forecast into the middle of July:

Next Week:  Scattered thunderstorms with several waves from Sunday through Wednesday.  Severe threat each day with warm temperatures.  The highest severe threat will be on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

May 31st-June 6th: Mainly a hot week and mainly dry.  Chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday with a low severe threat.

June 7th-13th:  A hot start with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  Thunderstorms on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday with a severe threat each of those day.

June 14th-20th:  Mainly a warm week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday.  Scattered thunderstorms with our next system on Tuesday.  Then scattered thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday.  Severe threats Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 21st-27th:  Warm on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and mainly dry.  Thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday  with hot temperatures.  Some of those could be strong to severe.  Warm and dry heading into the weekend.

June 28th-July 4th:  A hot start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some of those could be severe on Wednesday.  Warm on Thursday and Friday but hot temps back in for the 4th.  Also, thunderstorm chances on the 4th.

July 5th-11th:  A warm to hot week with slight chances for storms on Wednesday.  Better chances for scattered storms on Friday and Saturday.