Latest updated blog – Some dry time on a warm Saturday – Nick
Before eager rain chances start to return
Good Friday evening, everyone. After we dealt with our morning round of strong to severe t-storms this morning, we were thankful that the atmosphere didn’t recover in time for any t-storm chances for the afternoon and evening. Given what the day is, we gladly enjoyed a quiet afternoon and evening. That being said, we did pick up on additional rain that we didn’t need this morning. Area-wide rain amounts averaged out to .8″ with some areas seeing as much as 1 to 2 inches from the morning storms.
We enjoyed seeing highs climb back into the upper 70s and near 80° this afternoon. With our quiet evening, we saw temperatures drop back through the 70s and we’ll head into the 60s for Saturday morning. We’ll be ready for a bit of a warmer Saturday with highs ready to climb back into the middle 80s.
The surface setup looks a little messy, but we did have a relatively weak cold front just to our west today. That will continue to work off to the northeast while any strong or severe t-storms for the rest of the night remains near the stationary front across southern Oklahoma and central Arkansas.
The upper level setup is a little more revealing and a little better at describing the setup for the rest of the weekend. The upper low in southeast Nebraska will lift to the northeast and allow a temporary upper level ridge to roll in from the west. That will keep us quiet and warm for most of your Saturday. Then, the upper low in the western US will be ready to send more rain and t-storm chances our way.
With the rain that we picked up from this morning and increasing humidity under a light south breeze, we could see some patchy fog as we head into Saturday morning. Otherwise, we’ll start mild with lows in the middle 60s under partly cloudy skies.
As we continue with partly sunny skies and south breeze at 5-15 (gusts near 20 mph), we’ll have a warm afternoon with highs back in the middle 80s. There’s a slim chance a t-storm or two could pop up around Grand Lake, but most spots will stay dry for the vast majority of the day.
While we stay quiet and mild for Saturday evening, we’ll be keeping an eye on t-storms out to the west. T-storms could possibly develop out in western Kansas or in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. As they get going, they certainly have a chance of turning strong to severe.
If those t-storms can develop and continue heading east in our direction, there’s a chance some of our western counties could see some t-storms to start Sunday morning out as lows only drop back into the upper 60s.
We’ll continue to watch the potential for t-storms to start Sunday morning out, but the waves to the west will keep coming with scattered t-storm chances expected for Sunday afternoon and evening as highs climb back into the middle 80s.
As for the rest of the holiday weekend, the waves will just keep coming with multiple rain and t-storm chances following suit. With that trend keeping t-storms around for most of Memorial Day under mostly cloudy skies, we’ll have to settle for highs in the upper 70s on the holiday this year.
Then, the rest of the week ahead poses a problem for us. The reason we say that is what the upper level setup is revealing. The upper low that’s churning in the western US wants to shift into the Southern Plains as we head into next week. That keeps t-storms in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Unfortunately, this low wants to get cut off from the jet stream and just sit over parts of Oklahoma and Texas as we head into late next week.
That setup may keep temperatures below normal with highs in the upper 70s, but it means several days of rain chances that could certainly add up. On top of already saturated ground from the rain we’ve seen over the past few weeks, we could see an additional 1 to 3 inches in total by the time we hit next Friday.
While that may lead to a wet end to the month of May, thankfully Doug’s pattern has us trending a bit drier as we head into June. You can see how June and early July is shaping up with his long range forecast down below.
Have a good night and a great Saturday!
Long range forecast into the middle of July:
Next Saturday: Staying warm with some isolated to scattered t-storms around.
May 31st-June 6th: A warm start to the week with hot temperatures rolling in the rest of the week. Slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday. Thunderstorms again on Friday and Saturday with a severe threat.
June 7th-13th: A warm then hot start to the week with scattered storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will cool us back down to warm temperatures the rest of the week.
June 14th-20th: Mainly a warm week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms with our next system on Tuesday. Then scattered thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday. Severe threats Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.
June 21st-27th: Warm on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and mainly dry. Thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday with hot temperatures. Some of those could be strong to severe. Warm and dry heading into the weekend.
June 28th-July 4th: A hot start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of those could be severe on Wednesday. Warm on Thursday and Friday but hot temps back in for the 4th. Also, thunderstorm chances on the 4th.
July 5th-11th: A warm to hot week with slight chances for storms on Wednesday. Better chances for scattered storms on Friday and Saturday.