Latest updated blog – Snow picking up for Sunday & Monday – Nick

Bitterly cold to start the week out

Good Saturday evening, everyone. While it stayed cold once again for today, we saw something we haven’t seen in about a week. After a cloudy start this morning, the sun popped out! While it made the day look nicer than it has compared to how it was all week, it stayed cold once again. While we did see lows drop to 4 degrees at Joplin Regional this morning, the sun was able to pop highs back up into the middle teens for the afternoon.


Heading into the overnight and into our Sunday, we have two big headlines on the board. The first is our winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings ready to take us through Sunday and into Monday.


Not only that, we have wind chill advisories, wind chill watches and wind chill warnings blanketed across our corners of Kansas and Missouri. No matter if you sit under any one of these wind chill alerts or not, we’ll all experience wind chill values at their coldest between -30 and -15 as we go through Sunday, Monday and into Tuesday morning.

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Looking at our weather setup, the surface map really tells the story of why much of the country is dealing with quite a cold spell. The area of high pressure is in control with keeping our area cold with our wind coming out of the north and northeast. Based on how the stationary front dives deep into the Gulf of Mexico, the extent of this cold spell is now overtaking much of the Southern Plains and working into parts of the Deep South.


The upper-level setup really shows where our next storm system is coming from. While the low centered north of Minneapolis helps keep us cold and keeps the jet stream well to our south, we have two lows to our west and southwest. While the upper-low over Texas will eventually falls apart as it works toward Houston, the upper low over Utah and Colorado will start working in and ramp up our snow chances for the next day and a half.


While it was nice to see some sunshine earlier today, the cloud cover will be back in place overnight as snow chances start to pick up in our western and southwestern counties by 2 AM.


By 6 AM on our Sunday, we’ll see our first wave of light to moderate snow overtake the region as lows drop back to around 2 before the morning gets started.


If we can see some localized forcing along the I-44 corridor in northeastern Oklahoma, some bands of heavier snow could try to roll on through. That’s something we’ll watch for as we continue through our Sunday morning. By noon, we should see our snow chances back down to some areas of light snow as temperatures try to climb to about 4 across the region.


While some light snow will be around to start Sunday afternoon, we’ll watch for another band of light to moderate snow to develop out across southern Kansas and Oklahoma and head our way. If we get lucky, we’ll see afternoon highs only climb to about 6 with a northeast breeze at 10-20 mph.


While the wave will start to develop another batch of light to moderate snow late in the afternoon, it will continue as we head into Sunday night. Like the first batch of snow for the morning, some heavier pockets of snow will certainly be possible in some spots.

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The wave starts to pass along as we head into Monday morning. As a result, we’ll see the bulk of our accumulating snow with this system start to wind down as we start our Monday morning out. With the snow on the ground and cloudy skies in place, we’ll have lows dropping back to about -6 across much of the area.


While the bulk of the wave passes on as we get our Monday started, we can’t rule out some scattered light snow showers throughout the day. Everyone stays cloudy and cold, though, with highs around 5 for the afternoon. When it comes to how much snow we could expect on the ground by Monday, the area has a good shot to see snow amounts range between 4 inches on the low end and 7 inches on the high end. With any pockets of heavier snow certainly possible at times, that could lead to a few spots seeing some higher amounts. We see the better shot for widespread snow totaling more than 7 inches staying out across Oklahoma from Claremore and Tulsa back into the central, western and southern parts of the state.


Don’t forget about the wind chill values for the next day or so. With lows around 2 for Sunday morning with a northeast wind at 10-20 mph, we’ll have it feel like it’s between -20 and -10 to start the day out.


With our highs climbing near 6 with a northeast breeze at 10-20 mph (gusts near 25 at times), it will feel like it’s between -15 and -5 throughout the afternoon.


For Monday morning, it will actually be bitterly cold to start with the wind chills looking worse. You take our lows around -6 for Monday morning with a north breeze at 5-15 mph, it will feel like it’s between -30 and -15 to start the morning out.


While the snow chances will taper off throughout the day on Monday, the temperatures will stay bitterly cold. With highs around 5 and a north breeze at 5-10, that will still make it feel like it’s between -10 and -5 for Monday afternoon. For Tuesday morning, we have lows dropping down to -10 before we try to get highs back near 15 for the afternoon. That cold air for Tuesday morning is cold air that we haven’t seen since January 2014. While we stay quiet with mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday, we’ll keep an eye on another wave by Wednesday. Another low coming out from the west wants to bring snow chances back in starting on Wednesday.


The latest look at things wants this wave to back our snow chances down to light snow chances for Thursday before it clears out by Thursday evening. It’s still a little too early to say how much snow we should expect out of the wave for Wednesday and Thursday. It’s definitely something we’ll keep a close eye on as we proceed through the week ahead.


If you’re waiting for better news, have a look at Friday. Not only does the upper low that wants to bring snow chances in for the middle of the week scoot off to the northeast, the strong upper-low from the polar vortex is gone. That means the jet stream will start to moderate and and lift back to the north. Under partly sunny skies for Friday, we’ll get highs back near 32. After we drop into the lower 20s for Saturday morning, we’ll shoot for highs between the upper 30s and near 40 for next Saturday as we’ll finally climb back above freezing.


If you’re curious as to how we look for the rest of February and much of March, Doug has you covered with his long-range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Sunday!


February 21st-27th: We’re looking at cool temperatures for the first part of the week. We’ll turn briefly colder for Thursday before we turn cool for Friday and mild for Saturday. Rain chances will be around on Sunday before another system sneaks in by the middle of the week. That will give us slight snow chances Tuesday, slight rain and snow chances Wednesday and slight snow chances for Thursday.

February 28th-March 6th: Sunday looks mild before we turn cooler on Monday and cold for Tuesday and Wednesday. A brief mild spell for Thursday and Friday before we cool back down on Saturday. A system early in the week will have rain chances for Sunday and Monday. We’ll watch for slight rain and snow chances on Wednesday and slight rain chances on Friday.

March 7th-13th:  A cool start to the week with some showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up the second half of the week with rain on Thursday and Friday.

March 14th-20th:  Rain or snow chances on Sunday.  Cool on Sunday and Monday with mild temperatures the rest of the week.  Rain chances back in on Wednesday.