Latest updated blog: Severe threat is increasing! -Doug
Severe threat is increasing! -Doug
Good Thursday night or almost Friday morning! I hope you have had a great week so far. Mine has been pretty good, just busy. Christian heads to Seattle this weekend for his Car T Cell treatment. He will be up there for about 6 weeks, ugh. He is far from excited about this. I am going to hang back here for severe weather chances. However, anytime we don’t have severe weather, I will be in Seattle. So lots of traveling around the corner.
Well I mentioned severe weather, so lets look at it. We are in cycle 6 of this years Heady Pattern that started back in September. This has been a very strange pattern the past 9 months and I am ready for it to come to an end in late summer. Our 46 day cycle has been active, but just weird. We are in a stretch of the pattern (about 2 weeks) that is the active stretch. That is never good in May. We have a severe threat about 80% of the days for the rest of the month. I will say, looking at all of these, I don’t see a threat that just screams tornado outbreak. But even the lower threats can come together and give us a big outbreak. Lets deal with the next few days. Scattered showers and thunderstorm trying to work in by daybreak.
These won’t be severe, but just hit and miss scattered thunderstorms and showers on and off through the morning. Even a few trying to pop up during the afternoon.
Temperatures look good though with a high around 71.
More thunderstorms (non severe) work in late Friday night and Saturday morning.
Scattered thunderstorms through the Saturday morning. Additional afternoon and evening thunderstorms will pop up.
Now, look at the warm front racing north by Saturday afternoon. Once that passes through by the evening hours, we will become unstable and a severe threat will arrive. So scattered evening and overnight storms on Saturday night. I think we will have a low severe weather threat. As we get closer to Saturday night, if we become unstable enough I will up this to a moderate threat. Just letting you know how my brain works, lol.
Scattered thunderstorms once again, mainly on Sunday afternoon. Again we will have a severe threat. Here is our severe threats the next few days.
Again, I may have to up these the next few days, especially on Tuesday. Long range forecast below.
Next Friday and Saturday: Warm with thunderstorms continue with a low threat both days.
May 23rd-May 29th: A repeat week. Chances for thunderstorms almost everyday. I think Wednesday and Thursday look pretty good, but chances Sunday through Tuesday with at least a low threat. Severe threat returns as we head into the holiday weekend. However, temperatures look great, mainly in the 80s.
May 30th-June 5th: A stormy holiday with a severe threat. Warm with thunderstorm sticking around on Tuesday. Cooling down a bit for the middle of the week and dry. Warming up late in the week with thunderstorm chances once again.
June 6th-June 12th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Severe threat returns for Saturday.