Latest updated blog – Rounds of rain on the way this week – Nick

Some severe weather chances later on this week

Good Sunday evening, everyone. Thankfully, we managed to stay dry on this Mother’s Day. The cold front did come through this morning with cloud cover to start the day out. Fortunately, we really didn’t see any rain showers materialize across much of the area. That meant we started dry and cool this morning with lows in the middle to upper 40s. As skies turned partly to mostly sunny through the day, we saw our afternoon highs climb back into the lower 60s.


As we begin the new week, though, our temperatures have to take a little dip as our next wave starts to roll in. With the wave on the way in, we’ll have rain chances picking up by sunrise and periods of rain under cloudy skies carry us through your Monday. That only allows temperatures to warm from the upper 30s in the morning to the lower 50s for the afternoon ahead.


The wave that wants to bring rain in for Monday isn’t the cold front that worked through today. That’s off to the south for the time being while the backside of the front starts to develop out in the Rocky Mountains.


The wave we’re talking about is a very subtle upper level wave at the jet stream level. It’ll come out of the Northern Plains and ride along the northwest flow of the jet for Monday. We still note an upper level ridge out to the west. As it weakens over the next few days, we’ll see multiple waves develop as a result and start to line up additional rain and t-storm chances for the rest of the week.


What starts as a quiet overnight will be different by sunrise. We’ll have cloud cover picking up from the west along with rain chances working into our western counties. No matter if you’re dry or seeing rain by sunrise, everyone will start quite cool with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.


The safest rule of thumb for Monday is to have the rain gear and jackets handy. As the wave really kicks in, we’ll see periods of light to moderate rain carry us through the rest of the day. With the clouds and the rain around, we’ll climb into the upper 40s by lunchtime.


It looks as though the lower 50s is the best we can do for afternoon highs across the area as our rain chances continue underneath cloudy skies.


Heading into Monday evening and Tuesday morning, this wave will pick up additional moisture and lift. That will result in moderate to heavy rainfall in some spots as lows drop back into the middle 40s for Tuesday morning.


Tuesday will start with some periods of rain before we see the wave move on by Tuesday afternoon. That will allow some dry time to return late in the day along with a bit of a warm up. However, it will still be quite chilly by May standards as afternoon highs Tuesday will only top out in the middle 50s.


Monday and Tuesday’s rain chances are just the start of our busy week in weather, though. The front that’s developing out to the west will make its move on Wednesday. It’ll return as a warm front lifting in from the southwest. While that does get our highs back into the lower 70s, it’ll also bring in t-storm chances for Wednesday afternoon and evening. We’ll keep an eye on those t-storm chances as they could also bring a severe threat for parts of the area.


A shift in the front will still leave us in the warm sector on Thursday. As highs climb back near 80° for Thursday afternoon, we’ll watch for the cold front to fire off strong to severe t-storms for Thursday afternoon and evening.


As long as this front doesn’t budge a whole lot as we head toward the weekend, it’ll keep us warm. On the other hand, it’ll also keep t-storm chances in place across the area.


Since indications show the wave for Monday & Tuesday and the eventual frontal system bringing multiple waves of rain and t-storms our way, we could see rain amounts really add up throughout the week. Monday & Tuesday’s rain chances along could bring rain amounts between 1 and 2 inches across the area. For the t-storm chances Wednesday and into next Sunday, that could bring rain totals over the next 7 days to a range between 2 and 5 inches.


The heavier rain amounts will vary depending on where the rounds of rain will track along with any potential for heavy downpours. With chances for heavy rainfall and strong to severe t-storms returning this week ahead, we’ll definitely stay busy keeping an eye on things. It’s May in the Four States, though. This is hardly surprising considering May is one of our more active months. Just keep checking in with us and you’ll know what to expect over the next several days. Doug has his look for the rest of May and much of June in his long range forecast down below.

Have a good night and a great Monday!


Long range forecast into the middle of June:

Next Week:  A warm start to the week with mild temperatures back in for the middle of the week.  Warm temperatures will be right back in late in the week and into the weekend.  However, 3 strong systems during the week with good severe weather threats.  Sunday, Tuesday and then again by Saturday.

May 24th-30th: A good severe threat on Sunday and Monday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with more thunderstorm son Wednesday and Thursday.  Hot temperatures late in the week with a severe threat on Saturday.

May 31st-June 6th: A warm start to the week with hot temperatures through the rest of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday.

June 7th-13th:  A warm start to the week with hot temps by mid week.  Staying fairly hot the rest of the week.  Scattered thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

June 14th-20th:  The first half of the week will be warm with a hot finish.  Scattered storms on Tuesday and Saturday.