Latest updated blog – Rain chances sticking with us – Nick

System set to move on by this weekend

Good Tuesday evening, everyone. After our quiet and hot Labor Day, we had our front and upper-level system that we were patiently waiting for start working in today. You can see what an impact the front did for our temperatures when it worked into Joplin today. The 36 hour trend of temperatures down below shows our hot Labor Day, our mild start this morning, and the hot afternoon before the front dropped us into the 70s by 5 PM.


With that front sticking around for another day, temperatures will vary depending on where you sit in relation to the front. For the Joplin area, we’ll have lows dropping back into the middle 70s before we head into the lower 80s for Wednesday afternoon.


Breaking down the setup in place, we have our front stalled out along I-44 and not really budging much for the day ahead. Not only that, the front extends all the way from the Desert Southwest and up into New England.


At the jet stream level, the jet stream is also bisecting the region from southwest to northeast as the strong upper-level low spins across Utah and Colorado with an early appearance of winter as temperatures are cold enough for snow out that way.


While we don’t have to deal with any snow or freezing cold temperatures anytime soon, these two systems won’t budge for the day ahead of us. Everyone will stick with mostly cloudy skies through the night and into Wednesday morning. Even with some areas along and west of I-49 seeing some scattered showers and t-storms to start the day out, temperatures will vary. Areas from Nevada to Vinita to the east, we’ll start the morning with lows in the lower to middle 60s. West of that line, you’ll start chilly with lows in the 50s.


The position of the front will determine how warm areas will get as we work throughout the day. As we head through the morning and toward the noon hour, the front is going to hang out along the I-44 corridor. If you’re north of the front with mostly cloudy skies some of you will be in the 60s to lower 70s by the start of the afternoon. Areas along and south of the front with some peaks of sunshine will have temperatures push into the upper 70s to get the afternoon going.


As we head through the afternoon, the front will work with the returning warmth, moisture and additional lift coming from the upper-level low out to our west. That combination will lead to scattered t-storms returning for the afternoon. Again, temperatures will vary across the area. With some cooler air behind the front, parts of southeast Kansas will struggle to get out the 60s for highs. Other areas north of I-44 will see highs in the 70s for the afternoon. Closer to the front or to the south of the front, you’ll have a warm afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 80s.


Our setup for Thursday won’t change very much. We’ll start the day out with mostly cloudy skies and areas of scattered rain and t-storms about. Thursday morning lows will vary from the 50s in parts of southeast Kansas to the lower to middle 60s in southwest Missouri and areas south of I-44.


For the afternoon, most of the area will be on the cool side of the front as it starts to move off to our southeast. While we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and rain chances once again for Thursday, highs will vary from the middle to upper 60s in our western counties to the lower to middle 70s as you work to the east.


On the heels of the front starting to push off to the east for Thursday, the upper low out in Colorado will get the hint and start to move on. Even though that wave will start to get disorganized as it works across the Central and Northern Plains, it’ll keep us mostly cloudy with scattered t-storms around for Friday. This setup will keep us mild on Friday with highs topping out in the middle 70s.


This wave will give us one more day of rain chances for Saturday before it passes to our north and northeast. Even with scattered t-storms still possible for Saturday, returning partly sunny skies will take us from morning lows in the middle 60s to highs back in the lower to middle 80s.


Before this persistent wave clears out by Saturday night, we still have the chance to see additional accumulating rainfall over the next several days. The rain amounts will vary, but the expected rain totals by Saturday night will vary between half an inch to almost 2 inches. If we see additional heavy pockets of rain work in, some spots could see possibly an additional 3 inches before we dry out for Sunday.


Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll keep dry for Sunday and early next week with highs staying warm. Even though it’ll be warm, we’re talking about nice temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and morning lows between the upper 50s and lower 60s. We’ll watch for another chance for rain to start working in by next Wednesday. For a look at the rest of September and the first few days of October, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!


Next Week:  Staying warm for the week.  We will also have slight chances for rain returning Wednesday and Thursday, with better chances on Friday.

September 20th-26th:  A warm start, but turn colder on Monday and Tuesday with a stronger storm system working in.  This will give us rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Chilly through the middle of the week with mild temperatures returning late in the week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

September 27th-October 3rd:  A chilly start to the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week.  Rain chances on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.