Latest updated blog – Rain chances sneaking back in for Monday – Nick
Looking at an eventual warming trend this week
Good early Monday morning, everyone. Our Mother’s Day turned out to be quite a different day compared to how the rest of our weekend went. We had scattered rain and t-storms on Friday, but we were able to see highs climb into the middle to upper 60s that afternoon. Looking at the 36 hour trend from Saturday morning to 6 o’clock last evening, you can tell that a good storm system passed on through. After we saw highs in the lower 80s with partly sunny skies on Saturday, we went from early Sunday morning highs in the middle 70s to afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 50s across the area.
That drop in temperatures was due to a cold front that swept through the early morning hours on our Sunday. Ahead of it, we had a good complex of rain and t-storms roll through from north to south before we dried out for the afternoon. It was good to see the calmer weather this afternoon after areas that saw the t-storms picked up between half an inch and up to 3 inches Sunday morning.
The front that brought us a chillier Sunday and the t-storms early Sunday morning is well to our south. Ahead of that front, the unstable air allowed for another round of strong to severe t-storms to unfold across parts of the US from the Southern Plains through the Deep South and into the Tennessee Valley.
While it would appear that we don’t have any other systems on the way at the surface, we’re keeping an eye on what’s going on upstairs at the jet stream level. The upper-level low spinning across Idaho, the same low that sent a shortwave our way to aid in our rain and t-storms Sunday morning, is sending another wave our way to keep some rain chances in the forecast for our Monday.
While everyone stays on the dry side overnight, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and a northeast breeze at 5-15 mph. That will lead to a cold start with lows in the middle 40s across much of the area. The Future Track shows the advancing upper-level wave wanting to start bringing rain chances in by the time we get the AM drive started. It’s a good idea to have the jacket and the umbrella handy as you head out to work or school in the morning.
After the AM drive, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers through the rest of the morning and to start the afternoon out. Despite the rain chances, a lighter northeast breeze and some pockets of sunshine will help push temperatures into the middle 50s by the noon hour.
While the afternoon starts with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers, this impulse will move on as we carry on through the day. That will result in partly sunny skies returning for some and a random shower or two trying to hold on. With more peaks of the sun, that should be enough to send highs back near 60° for the afternoon.
While we start Monday evening out on a dry note and partly cloudy skies, another disturbance out west will be on the way. That will result in skies turning mostly cloudy by Tuesday morning with some showers wanting to sneak back in by sunrise. It’ll be another cool start with lows back in the middle 40s across the area.
With Tuesday’s impulse passing through, we’ll have another shot for scattered showers as we roll through Tuesday morning and into the start of Tuesday afternoon.
Even with scattered showers continuing through Tuesday afternoon, we’ll still have a mild day with highs around 60° once again.
As we work into Wednesday, the upper-level low will finally get out of the Pacific Northwest and work across the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. As long as it’s still around for Wednesday, we’ll keep an eye on some scattered showers during the morning hours on Wednesday. Thankfully, we’ll have partly sunny skies returning for Wednesday afternoon as highs top out in the lower 60s.
With our rain chances for the next three days, we aren’t looking at rain amounts similar to what we saw over the course of this past weekend. However, we could see rain amounts range between a quarter of an inch to half an inch by the time these rain chances clear out on Wednesday.
By Thursday, that persistent upper-level finally moves away from us. That will allow mostly sunny skies to return and allow temperatures to truly start climbing once again. Once we get past lows in the lower 40s, we’ll see highs climb into the middle to upper 60s for Thursday afternoon.
Even with partly sunny skies sneaking back in on Friday, the returning jet stream will mean temperatures will continue to climb as we head into the upcoming weekend. After we enjoy a nice start to the weekend with highs in the lower 70s, we’ll stick with Doug’s pattern and keep an eye on Saturday and Sunday. Why? Look at the Future Track below showing the jet stream setup for Saturday.
With another upper-level low assisting our next frontal system for both Saturday and Sunday, we’ll keep an eye out for scattered t-storms. While we’re expecting just normal t-storms on Saturday, we’ll see if a severe threat can materialize by next Sunday. Despite the t-storm chances, we’ll see highs in the middle 70s on Saturday and upper 70s on Sunday. If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of the month and much of June (including additional t-storm chances & severe threats), Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
May 17th-May 22nd: Warm with thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday. These could be strong to severe. Another event in on Thursday and Friday. Cooling back down a bit into the weekend.
May 23rd-May 29th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms and a severe threat Sunday through Tuesday. Warming up late in the week with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Some of those as well could be strong to severe.
May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.
June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.
June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.
June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.