Blog update: More thunderstorms and a severe threat this weekend -Doug
Good Thursday night! I hope your week has been going great! Mine has been busy but good. Christian (my son) is having his 12th B-Day party tomorrow evening. 4 or 5 12 years old boys should be funny staying over. I get such a kick out of listening to their conversations at this age. We are going to have to start to watch for showers and thunderstorms increasing with a severe threat on Saturday. Let’s break it down.
A warm front will start to work during the morning hours. Along and north of the front, we will start to get scattered showers and even a few thundershowers.
The best chances for showers will be from 10AM-2PM. I do think we will clear out by evening and climb into the upper 60s. Friday night, additional thunderstorms will pop up. Again these will be along and north of the warm front. So these will be mainly in the northern half of the area. A few of these could be stronger, but I don’t expect severe.
Scattered thunderstorms into Saturday morning, but most of Saturday will be warm, windy and dry.
We will be in a capped environment on Saturday afternoon. A cap is a layer of warm air aloft, several thousand feet above the surface. Or can be described as an area of stable air aloft. Thunderstorms have a hard time busting through the cap. But once they do, they can really fire up. So Saturday afternoon we have a slight chance that a couple storms bust through the cap, but I think unlikely at this point in time. So I think most of the day will be dry. However, by the evening hours, thunderstorms will get through the cap across central KS and start plowing SE.
This will mostly likely become a severe line of storms and work in during the middle of the overnight hours on Saturday night.
If this line can become severe, it will most likely produce high winds and hail with a low tornado threat. As of right now, I am going to keep the overall threat for severe weather low, but I may have to up it to moderate as we get a little closer to the event. So on that note, here is May.
I have taken a little different approach to the system break down map. I changed everything to a low threat, with one moderate day. So this gives you a very good idea when severe weather is possible. As we get closer to events and severe weather looks more likely I will up it to a moderate threat. If I am 100% we are going to have a big event, we will go to a high threat. Long range forecast is below.
Next Friday through Saturday: Warming back up with thunderstorms chances back in on Friday and Saturday.
May 16th-May 22nd: Warm with thunderstorm chances from Sunday through Tuesday. These could be strong to severe. Another event in on Thursday and Friday. Cooling back down a bit into the weekend.
May 23rd-May 29th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms and a severe threat Sunday through Tuesday. Warming up late in the week with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Some of those as well could be strong to severe.
May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.
June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.
June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.
June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.