Latest updated blog – More rain chances for today – Nick
Keeping us warm once again
Good Thursday morning, everyone. After our rounds of scattered showers and t-storms yesterday, we had another batch work through late last night and earlier this morning bringing in additional pockets of moderate to heavy rain. We’re still not done with our rain chances just yet. Breaking down our weather setup, our stationary front lifted back to the north yesterday. On the tail end of it, we saw a cold front develop across central Kansas and extend back to the southwest.
Plus, we have another upper-level low that will work out of South Dakota and Nebraska through the day ahead of us. This upper-level low will work together with the front and the returning warmth and humidity to keep rain and t-storm chances in the forecast for today.
After the AM drive, we’ll keep the rest of the morning mainly on the quiet side as temperatures warm back into the lower 80s by lunchtime. It is possible that a few showers or t-storms could start to pop up during the noon hour, but most areas should be dry as we start the afternoon out.
Heading into the afternoon, the front working together with the upper-level wave, the humidity and afternoon temperatures pushing back into the middle 80s, that will help spark additional scattered rain and t-storms across the area. The vast majority of these t-storms will stay below severe levels, but it will be another shot for moderate to heavy rain for parts of the area.
The front will move on to our southeast as we head into the weekend, but we’ll hold onto the upper-level wave as it works across the state of Missouri. With that being the case, we’ll hold onto scattered rain and t-storms for Friday morning as lows drop back into the upper 60s.
After the AM drive Friday, most of the morning should be relatively quiet before scattered t-storms pop back up for the afternoon. With a northerly wind kicking in behind the cold front, afternoon temperatures look pretty good with highs planning on topping out in the lower 80s.
With rain chances still in the forecast for today through Saturday, we need to watch how much additional rain we could get. By Saturday afternoon, it’s possible for the area overall to see between half an inch to almost 2 inches. Locally heavier amounts are possible and dependent on where the heavier pockets of rain plan on setting up. We’ll keep an eye on these mounts as this could lead to some minor flooding concerns across parts of the area.
Despite rain chances sticking around for Saturday and Sunday with the upper-level low wandering around Missouri and Illinois, temperatures will remain warm with highs in the lower to middle 80s. As the new work week gets underway for Monday, the upper low will slowly start working into Illinois. As long as it keeps the northwest flow aloft in place, we’ll hold on to isolated t-storms chances for Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s.
After another day with isolated t-storms on Tuesday, the upper low will move on across the Great Lakes. Before the upper-level ridge in the Desert Southwest tries to build back in, we’ll stay warm with highs pushing back into the middle to some upper 80s.
By Thursday and heading into late next week, the upper-level ridge and the warmer side of the jet will start heading back in our direction. That will start to bring the summer heat back in for our first full weekend of August. For a look at how the month of August is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast below.
Have a great Thursday!
Long range forecast through August:
Next Thursday-Saturday: Heating back up for Thursday with another front trying to get in by Friday with thunderstorm chances.
August 9th-15th: Most of the week on the hot side with pop up storms from Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures back off just a bit for the weekend.
August 16th-22nd: A hot start, but most of the week warm with hot temperatures returning late in the week. Chances for scattered storms on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Saturday.
August 23rd-29th: A warm start to the week but most of the week on the hot side. Isolated storms on Sunday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.