Latest updated blog – Lingering rain chances for our mild Thursday – Nick

More storm systems down the road

Good Wednesday evening, everyone. Our cold front certainly made an appearance in one way or another today. When it was out in central Kansas yesterday evening, it fired off that cluster of strong to severe t-storms that ended up grazing our far northern counties. By the time it passed nearby, however, we didn’t have any severe weather to deal with. For others, we saw additional rain and t-storms develop close to the US 69 corridor in our corners of Kansas and Oklahoma and for a good portion of southwestern Missouri. If you didn’t see or feel the front come through with the rain and t-storm chances, you certainly did with the changing wind cooling things down. After our warm Tuesday with highs in the middle to upper 70s, we started out in the upper 60s this morning before Joplin Regional topped out at 71° during the 10 o’clock hour this morning. Once the front passed, we dropped back into the 50s and 60s for this afternoon.


With this system so far, we only had our far northern counties and areas along the US 69 corridor and into southwest Missouri pick up about .3″ of rain on average. If you haven’t seen any rain chances yet, we’re not done with this system just yet. On top of that, I’m seeing other storm systems lining up over the next several days. Looking at the surface setup down below, we’re dealing with the backside with some scattered showers trying to work in. Not only that, I’m watching another front to our northwest that’ll start working in on Friday.


In addition to the systems at the surface, the upper levels are staying a bit active. Not only are we trying to get our current upper-level low that helped aid in our rain and t-storm chances today, we have another one near Vancouver. That’s the low that will push the cold front our way for Friday.


With the backside of our current system still in play, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies through the night and into our Thursday morning. Not only that, enough moisture is expected to work in from the northwest and result in scattered showers across our northern areas as we get the morning started. Otherwise, everyone starts cool in the morning with lows in the middle 40s.


Fortunately, these rain chances won’t last all day long. As the system starts to lift away to the northeast as we get into the afternoon, the rain chances will lift out and our resulting skies will turn partly to mostly sunny. Even with a west wind at 10-20 mph (some gusts near 30 mph at times) during the day, we’ll have a mild afternoon lined up. We’ll have temperatures in the upper 50s by the lunch hour and highs back in the upper 60s across much of the area. For our far northeastern counties, you may only top out in the lower to middle 60s since you’ll be the last to see the cloud cover and rain chances clear out. In terms of additional rainfall with this system, some spots could see another tenth or quarter of an inch before it starts to lift out.


Before the system completely moves on as we work into Thursday evening, a little ripple of energy and a little burst of moisture could result in a few random showers late in the evening. Otherwise, we’ll see partly cloudy to mostly clear skies as we work into Friday morning. After seeing temperatures drop into the upper 50s by 10 PM, we’ll see lows dip back to 50° for Friday morning.


While we stay dry for the start of Friday afternoon, we’ll find ourselves on the warmer side of the jet once again under partly sunny skies. While it will be nice to see a quick jump back into the upper 70s for afternoon highs, the upper low coming out of Canada will start to push the next cold front our way. As it works in, we’ll watch for the front to bring in the chance for scattered t-storms for late Friday afternoon and into Friday night. While this setup will bring another chance of severe weather for parts of the Deep South, we can’t rule out some strong t-storms here.


Before that upper low moves on, it wants to keep us mostly cloudy for Saturday as it navigates toward St. Louis. There’s also the chance for some scattered showers to remain for parts of our Saturday. With that setup and us back on the cooler side of the jet, we may only top out in the upper 50s for Saturday afternoon.


Looking at Sunday, that is looking the pick day of the weekend to get out and enjoy any outdoor plans. Under mostly sunny skies, we’ll go from a cool start in the middle 40s and top out in the middle 70s for a nice and mild day. We should enjoy it because we’ll stick with Doug’s pattern and see more storm systems head our way. For Monday, we’ll quickly head back to mostly cloudy skies as another upper-level wave sends another cold front our way. With enough moisture, we’ll have rain and t-storm chances return to start the new work/school week out with highs topping out in the lower 60s.


Even though we’ll find ourselves just on the cooler side of the jet, look at the projected upper-level low wanting to sink into Nevada and California by Tuesday. With that configuration, it fits with Doug’s pattern by wanting to bring bursts of energy our way that will result in rain chances sticking around for Tuesday and Wednesday. Not only that, we’re looking at chilly temperatures by the middle of next week. While we may top out in the upper 50s for Tuesday, we may be lucky if we can hit 50° for Wednesday afternoon.


If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of next week and the rest of April, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!


April 15th-April 17th: We’ll stay cool for the rest of the week while we deal with showers on Thursday, rain chances on Friday and slight rain chances on Saturday.

April 18th-April 24th: With the exception of some t-storm chances on Tuesday, we’re looking at mainly a quiet week. We’re mild to start the week before we warm back up for Thursday and to start the weekend out.

April 25th-May 1st: Several waves will be on the way for this week. We’ll watch for t-storms and a severe threat for our Sunday. After t-storm chances for Monday and Tuesday, we’ll watch for a severe threat with our t-storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll dry out for Friday and Saturday before we see another wave with a possible severe threat by that following Sunday, May 2nd. Sunday will be warm before we settle for a mild stretch from Monday through Friday. We’ll turn warm again on Saturday.