Latest updated blog – Hot Labor Day lined up for us – Nick

Before rain chances & cooler air head our way

Good late Sunday evening and early Monday morning, everyone. Our Labor Day weekend has been quiet so far and we’ve certainly kept it feeling like summer for the past few days. Sunday was no exception after we started mild in the lower 70s during the morning. When we got the sun back in action, we did have the south wind pick up through the day kicking gusts up to about 32 mph at Joplin Regional. Even with the wind, we had highs topping out at 90° in Joplin today. We’ll keep things hot once again as we head into Labor Day to wrap up the holiday weekend.


The surface map shows a front that stayed to our northwest during our Sunday. It won’t budge very far for Monday. While the cold front will advance into northern Missouri/northern Illinois and produce some t-storms for Labor Day afternoon, we’ll keep quiet while we turn hot and humid on the warmer side of this frontal system.


Our rain chances are still set to ramp up once our upper-level setup begins to change. Before the upper low near Edmonton, Alberta in Canada can dig into the Rockies and change our weather up, the strong upper-level ridge out to the west is keeping the jet stream to our north to wrap up our holiday weekend.


With us on the warm side of the frontal system and the warm side of the jet, it’s safe to say we’ll stay hot and humid for Labor Day this year. Before we can heat back up, we’ll start mild under mostly clear skies in the morning. While some spots near Nevada and Stockton Lake might only drop back into the middle 70s, most of us will start the morning out in the lower 70s with a lighter south breeze at 5-15 mph.


Once the sun is up, the south wind will kick back into gear to make sure we stay hot and humid for another day. With the wind at 10-20 mph (gusts near 25), that will send temperatures into the middle to upper 80s by the noon hour and highs into the lower 90s for the afternoon. The humidity for the afternoon will make it feel like it’s between 95 and 100 during the peak heating of the day.


After a quiet Monday night with some increasing clouds and mild lows back in the middle 70s, our attention will finally turn to the upper-low working out of western Canada. This is a strong upper-level low that will bring enough cold air across the Rockies and deliver snow for a good portion of Colorado for Tuesday. That will be a remarkable switch in weather for them as they’ll top out in the 90s for Labor Day before they crash into the 30s with snow on Tuesday. For us, the upper low will bring better upper-level lift and moisture our way to bring scattered t-storms in with the approaching front for Tuesday afternoon. With the upper holding back on Tuesday, though, we should have a warm Tuesday afternoon with most spots going into the middle to upper 80s.


When we last looked at the low’s progression through this week, first impression had it working right over the area for Wednesday and Thursday. That would have us cloudy for both days with periods of rain and temperatures struggling to get out of the 50s and 60s. With the latest look holding it in the Rockies through Thursday, we’ll stick with the cloud cover and rain chances for both days. We’ll still have a taste of cooler air (fall-like air) work in with highs in the lower 70s and morning lows in the lower 60s.


By Friday and Saturday, the upper low will work out of the Rockies and start passing to our north. That will keep scattered t-storm chances around for Friday and Saturday with highs in the lower 70s for Friday and highs pushing back into the upper 70s by Saturday. This feature will be gone by Sunday, but we’ll stick with Doug’s pattern and keep quiet with partly sunny skies for Sunday and highs in the upper 70s.


With rain chances possible for the week after our dry Labor Day, there’s a chance to bring some much need rain totals to the region. The updated Rain Tracker still wants rain totals ranging between 1 and 2 inches by the time we see rain chances depart on Saturday.


If you’re curious as to how we look for the rest of September and the first few days of October, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a great Labor Day!


Next Week:  A mild start to the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  We will also have slight chances for rain returning Tuesday through Thursday, with better chances on Friday.

September 20th-26th:  A warm start, but turn colder on Monday and Tuesday with a stronger storm system working in.  This will give us rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Chilly through the middle of the week with mild temperatures returning late in the week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

September 27th-October 3rd:  A chilly start to the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week.  Rain chances on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.