Latest updated blog – Fall returning for Monday – Nick
Two fronts working through this week
Good early Monday morning, everyone. While it was nice to end the weekend on a quiet and mostly sunny note, I think it’s safe to say NOBODY asked for a hot Sunday afternoon in the middle of October. We started the day off on a good note with overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. With the dry air still in place and our south wind back in action, we saw highs around Joplin push to 91° at 2:54 PM. It’s not by much, but it beats the old record of 90° set back in 1979. It certainly is warmer than our normal high of 73° as well.
Thankfully, the hot day we encountered won’t repeat itself as we get the new work/school week underway today. Have a look at the surface map. We had our south wind return ahead of our next cold front that’s working across eastern Kansas early this morning. While the better moisture along the front is resulting in t-storms to our north in western Iowa, this front will bring in some wind gusts as it pushes through.
We’re finally seeing the cold front head our way due to a change in our upper-level setup. The upper-level ridge that nudged the jet stream just to our north has weakened and shifted back into the Gulf of Mexico. That’s finally allowing the main upper low working across the Canadian border to push the cold front our way.
This front will be quick to pass on through. That means all the action this front will bring will be focused during the early morning hours and no later than when we finish the AM drive back to work and school. By 3 AM, the front will be working through the heart of the area. While moisture is really lacking with our portion of the front, we’re not going to rule out some partly cloudy skies and perhaps a random shower or two as the front passes through.
As the front continues to pass through, wind gusts could push in the neighborhood of 30-40 mph as we continue into Monday morning.
Once we get on the backside of the front by 8 AM, we’ll have temperatures starting chilly with lows in the middle to upper 50s. Any possible cloud cover this front will bring will be out of the area by the time we get to work and school.
While the front will bring a northwest wind back into the area for today, high pressure developing in the OK/TX Panhandles will take over and keep the northwest wind going as we work into the afternoon. Under mostly sunny skies, we (THANKFULLY!) won’t have another hot afternoon to put up with. Highs will be back near normal with everyone topping out mainly in the lower 70s.
With high pressure passing by this evening and into Tuesday morning, that will keep skies mostly clear as our wind starts to turn back out of the south. With a lighter wind for Tuesday morning, we’ll have lows drop back near 50° to start the day out.
Tuesday is looking like another quiet day with mostly sunny skies and a southwest in place. With a dry air mass still in place, we should have highs bounce back into the upper 70s without much trouble. We do note a stationary front that wants to develop early Tuesday morning and park itself just to our north. While this is another front, this won’t be the second front to push on through this week.
That stationary front heads back to the north on Wednesday as we see the main jet in the upper levels also lift back to our north. Couple that with a southwest breeze, we’ll have highs eager to bounce back into the middle 80s.
Late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, that’s when we’ll have another stronger cold front work in from the northwest. While that starts to drop highs back into the upper 60s for Thursday, look at the jet stream setup for Friday.
With the jet pushing to our south, that will certainly make it feel like fall by the end of the week. We could start Friday morning out with lows around 40° (upper 30s are possible for some) before we send highs back into the lower 60s for the afternoon. We’ll stay mild and dry for Saturday and next Sunday while watch for a few systems next week that could bring some much needed rain our way. Doug has the rest of the month broken down for you with his long-range forecast below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
October 18th-24th: The week starts mild. With a system by the middle of the week and rain chances possible by the weekend, we’ll go from mild temperatures on Wednesday to a cool end to the week.
October 25th-31st: With the exception of rain chances on Thursday, the week is looking dry overall. We’ll start with cool temperatures before we turn mild for the middle of the week. By Friday and Halloween, we’ll stay dry as temperatures turn cool once again.