Latest updated blog – Ending the weekend on a hot note – Nick
Watching rain chances lining up for this week
Good early Sunday morning, everyone. Unlike the rain and t-storms that we had to start our Saturday morning out, a weak wave passing by will try to give a few spots a few showers to start the day out. The forecast for the week ahead actually has more rain chances lining up. The surface setup below has the warm front that came through yesterday stalled off to our east. While we definitely stay on the hot side of that front, we’re also keeping an eye on our next cold front that will make a run for the area on Monday.
Looking at the upper-level setup, we have the upper-level ridge centered across the state of Texas. While we stay under its influence for today and much of next week with temperatures staying mainly on the hot side, look at the wave working across Kansas and Nebraska. That’s the wave passing to our north this morning and trying to give us a few showers. After this, we’ll watch for additional waves to line up and ride along the ridge toward us through the week.
Aside from the passing wave giving a few spots a chance for a few showers this morning, everyone is starting out under partly cloudy skies and temperatures a bit warm in the middle 70s. As we progress through the morning, any rain chances we have will be on the way out. To start the afternoon, we’ll have partly sunny skies in place and temperatures well into the upper 80s.
While we may start the afternoon out with partly sunny skies, the trend seems to have the skies turn mostly sunny through the rest of the day. With a south wind picking up to 10-20 mph and gusts near 25 through the afternoon, that will be enough to send afternoon highs into the middle 90s across the area.
With the humidity staying a bit high for today, it will feel warmer than what the thermometer will say. When we hit our afternoon highs in the middle 90s, the humidity will make it feel like it’s between 100 and 105.
Heading into this evening and Monday morning, we’ll start out with mostly clear skies before partly cloudy skies work back in by the morning. With the south breeze still in place and gusts close to 20 mph, we’ll only drop back into the middle 70s once again to start Monday morning out.
The cold front working out of the northwest will start working into northern Kansas and northern Missouri throughout our Monday. While we stay hot and humid ahead of the cold front with highs back in the middle 90s, note the t-storms that want to develop just to our northwest late Monday afternoon.
As the cold front starts to work close to the area late Monday afternoon and Monday evening, we’ll have another upper-level wave develop over Kansas and ride along the edge of the upper level ridge. As it works close by Monday and works into northern Missouri on Tuesday, that will keep a good chance for t-storms in the forecast late Monday and for much of Tuesday. Plus, the clouds and the rain chances may keep us only in the upper 80s for highs on Tuesday.
We may start with some scattered t-storms with that wave close by on Wednesday morning. As the day rolls on, it scoots off to the east and we’ll trend drier with partly sunny skies taking us back into the lower 90s for highs.
For Thursday and early Friday, we’ll have another wave develop across parts of Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa. That will bring another chance for t-storms our way for Thursday and Friday morning. This bout of rain chances will keep highs right around 90 as we head into the start of the weekend.
We may need to keep a careful eye on these rounds of rain lining up for the week ahead. An early look at the Rain Tracker shows rain totals between today and Friday afternoon ranging between half an inch and up to 2.5 inches. These may be the minimum of what we could see. Any of our rain chances lining up could bring additional moderate to heavy pockets of rain. Not only could that lead to higher amounts in some spots, it could lead to a potential for some flooding if we can’t spread the rounds of rain out throughout the week. It’s something we’ll continue to keep an eye on as we proceed through the week.
Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll have a break on Saturday as we stay quiet, hot and humid. For a look at how the rest of August and early September is shaping up, Doug has you covered with the long range forecast down below.
Have a great Sunday!
Long range forecast through August:
August 16th-22nd: A hot start to the week, but back to 80s for highs the second half of the week. With multiple waves working through. Isolated storm chances each day.
August 23rd-29th: Another warm start for Sunday and Monday before the heat returns for the rest of the week. T-storm chances are lined up for Sunday and for Thursday through Saturday.
August 30th-September 5th: A hot start, warm middle and hot finish to the week. Thunderstorms chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.