Latest updated blog – Cooler for the first day of fall – Nick

Clouds & rain chances sneaking back in as well

Good late Monday evening, everyone. Our final day of the summer season turned out to be pretty good across the entire area. With Mother nature giving us a repeat of our Sunday, we went from our chilly start in the lower 50s to another warm afternoon with highs in the lower 80s.


With fall kicking off on Tuesday, Mother Nature got the hint and is ready to bring some fall-like weather into the area. With mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain chances set for the day, we’ll only go from the lower 60s to the lower 70s for the Joplin area.


The surface setup below may not show a lot of change at first glimpse. The high pressure that kept us quiet has moved on into New England while a cold front is still to our northwest. There hasn’t been much change in our main focus for the next few days as Tropical Storm Beta makes landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast.


The upper-level setup continues to shot one upper low in Canada and another working near the Pacific Northwest in charge of carrying the cold front to our northwest into Canada over the next few days. As we head into tomorrow and Wednesday, we’ll actually have an upper-level wave developing on top of us to help encourage Tropical Storm Beta to move along through the middle of the week.


The latest look at Beta had it 5 miles east of Port O’Connor, TX with wind speeds topping 45 mph. It will make landfall late tonight and into Tuesday morning before it eventually begins the northeast track by Tuesday evening. While the track keeps Beta and the stronger impacts well to our south, we’ll still have Beta play a role in our forecast for the next few days.


We’ve been seeing the moisture from Tropical Storm Beta work in late this evening in the form of cloud cover moving in from the south. We’ll continue to see cloud cover increase through the night and into Tuesday morning. Some of our southern counties will even see some rain chances start to pick up during the overnight.


By the time we get closer to the morning drive, some more of our southern counties will see rain chances pick up. We’re not expecting anything too heavy and we’re not expecting t-storm chances with this moisture working in. Whether or not you have rain to start the morning out, everyone starts mild with lows close to 61°.


Everyone will continue with mostly cloudy skies through the day while the scattered rain chances mainly stay in some spots across our southern counties. The rain chances will determine how warm you’ll get. Areas that see more dry time through the day will have a chance to go into the middle 70s for the afternoon. Areas that will see more rain chances will only see highs climb into the lower 70s for the first day of fall.


While we’ll back off on the rain chances slightly for Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning, we’ll still hold onto the chance for a few showers while we stay mostly cloudy. This will only allow temperatures to drop back into the upper 50s for Wednesday morning.


While we start Wednesday out with some possible showers during the morning hours, we’ll have the rain chances move out as we head into the afternoon. With mostly cloudy skies still hanging on, though, we’ll have afternoon highs top out in the lower 70s across much of the area.


While it will be nice to have rain chances return for some, we won’t see a huge amount of rainfall over the next few days. With most of the moisture from Beta staying to our south, we’ll have rain amounts vary between a tenth of an inch to just over half an inch before we start drying out late on Wednesday.


As we look ahead, I wanted to show you the jet setup for Wednesday. The upper-level low projected to be on top of the Missouri/Arkansas line Wednesday afternoon will actually be forming during the day on Tuesday. Once we get into Wednesday afternoon and evening, this low will start carrying the moisture, rain chances and cloud cover off to our east.


With skies turning partly to mostly sunny on Thursday, we’ll see temperatures start to warm back up. After we start chilly in the middle 50s, we’ll climb back into the upper 70s for the afternoon all across the region. By Friday, a weak upper-level ridge will sneak in on top of us. This will keep us mostly sunny to start the first weekend of the fall season with highs in the middle 80s.


While we stay mostly sunny and warm with highs in the middle 80s once again for Saturday, have a look at the jet setup for Sunday morning. This incoming upper-level trough will encourage a cold front to work through late Saturday night and into Sunday morning. This will allow some scattered t-storms to return for Sunday morning before we dry out for the rest of our Sunday. This dip in the jet will allow temperatures to only warm into the middle to upper 70s for highs Sunday afternoon.


We may be warm to start next week out, but the jet setup will encourage another cold front to work in for Tuesday. That will give us another good taste of fall-like weather as we head into the middle of next week. If you’re curious as to how we’ll wrap up September and how October is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long-range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!


Next Tuesday-Saturday: Behind a front late Monday night, we’ll stay mild through the middle of the week. We’ll try to warm back up by the weekend. Mainly staying dry for the rest of the week.

October 4th-10th:  Mainly a mild and calm week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

October 11th-18th:  A mild start but a cool end of the week.  Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

October 19th-25th:  Mainly a mild week with cooler temperatures by the weekend.  Rain chances on Monday, then again Thursday through Friday.