Latest updated blog – Chilly Tuesday AM before we warm up – Nick
Summer heat still eager to return later on
Good Monday evening, everyone. For our first Monday of August and to start the first full work week of August out, it’s hard to come up with better weather than what Mother Nature gave us today. Everyone saw lows this morning drop back into the middle 60s under quiet skies as our day got going. For this afternoon, we were actually a little cooler compared to the middle 80s we saw to wrap up the weekend on Sunday. Joplin Regional topped out at 81 degrees early in the afternoon with outlying areas in the lower 80s due to a good north breeze through the day.
The quiet setup will continue through tonight and into Tuesday. However, we’re set for a chilly start on Tuesday morning before we can warm up again for the afternoon under partly to mostly sunny skies.
Let’s break down the setup across our area and the Lower 48. Behind our cold front that swept through yesterday, we have an area of high pressure keeping our northerly wind going and ready to usher in our chilly start for Tuesday. Note the cold front extending into Texas with the backside as a stationary front running up through the Rockies. Eventually, we’ll see that stationary boundary work back our way as a warm front as we head into the upcoming weekend. For the rest of the work week, it stays to our west and southwest.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the setup is looking good for those that don’t want the heat back right away. The typical summer upper-level ridge remains parked across the Desert Southwest while an upper-level low over the Great Lakes is strong enough to keep us on the cool side of the jet. It’s also going to grab Isaias and really encourage it to move along the Atlantic Coast over the next few days.
This setup keeps us quiet for Tuesday with (you could argue) a taste of early fall lined up for us. Under mostly clear skies and a light north breeze tonight, we’ll see temperatures drop into the middle 50s around Joplin with some of our northern counties dropping into the lower 50s. The record low for Joplin is 50 degrees set back in 1974. While we don’t expect new record lows to be set for Tuesday morning, definitely plan on a chilly start to the day.
While it won’t be a bad idea to have a jacket ready for the morning, you won’t need it for the rest of the day. With the rising sun and a light north breeze, it won’t be long before temperatures start warming up. We’ll fly through the 50s and 60s through the morning and push into the middle 70s by lunchtime.
With partly to mostly sunny skies and a light north breeze ready to take us through the afternoon, temperatures will be nice all across the area. Highs in the upper 70s for Tuesday means any outdoor plans, outdoor exercise or yard work will be good to go!
Heading through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, an upper-level wave will ride along the northwest flow and bring some t-storms across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. With this wave passing close to our area, we’ll definitely have partly cloudy skies as temperatures drop back into the middle to upper 50s. With a slight chance for a few t-storms to sneak in during the morning hours with this wave, it’s something to keep in mind as you start your Wednesday out.
Wednesday afternoon is looking okay with partly sunny skies and a dry afternoon shaping up for us. With a southeast breeze ready to work back in, though, we’ll see that result in afternoon highs ready to push back into the lower to middle 80s across the area.
Looking at the jet stream setup for Thursday, we do note some changes on the way for us. While another upper-level wave rides along the jet to bring in some scattered t-storms for Thursday, the upper-level ridge to the south will start to strengthen. With that wanting to push the jet stream back near our area, that will result with highs climbing back into the upper 80s across the area.
Heading into the weekend, the upper-level ridge starts to push the jet stream back to the north for Friday and Saturday. While a few weak waves riding along the ridge could result in a few isolated t-storms each afternoon, this setup will bring highs back into the lower 90s as the first weekend of August gets going.
For Sunday and early next week, the brunt of the ridge may temporarily retreat back into western Texas. However, the jet will stay to the north of the area and keep any good rain chances pretty much out of the picture. Not only that, we’ll have morning lows starting in the middle to upper 70s for Sunday and Monday morning with afternoon highs eager to bounce into the middle 90s.
The rest of August will be a mix of warm spells and hot spells other storm systems to keep an eye on. For a look at how the month is shaping up, Doug has your long range forecast down below.
Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
Long range forecast through August:
Next Tuesday-Saturday: Most of the week stays hot before we see a little cool-down by Friday and Saturday. The week starts dry before t-storm chances Wednesday through Friday.
August 16th-22nd: Warm temperatures for Sunday and Monday before the summer heat returns for the rest of the week. We see rain chances around for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and that weekend.
August 23rd-29th: Another warm start for Sunday and Monday before the heat returns for the rest of the week. T-storm chances are lined up for Sunday and for Thursday through Saturday.