Latest updated blog – Chilly Thursday before we warm up again – Nick

Watching rain & t-storm chances early next week

Good Wednesday evening, everyone. As we expected, we did turn quite a bit cooler for today behind the cold front that rolled on through yesterday. While it was nice to see early afternoon highs in the upper 60s at Joplin Regional yesterday, we dropped back into the lower 40s before we topped out in the middle 50s this afternoon.


After our chilly afternoon, we’re looking at a cold night ahead of us. In fact, we’ll have freeze warnings in place for much of our Thursday morning across southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, northeast Oklahoma and Linn, Bourbon, Crawford and Cherokee counties in southeast Kansas.


The freeze warnings are in place because of our weather setup that we have for tonight and heading into Thursday. The surface setup below shows our last cold front working along the East Coast and down into the Gulf of Mexico. Behind that, we have an area of high pressure working across the Southern Plains. As it works overhead, that will keep skies mostly clear and our breeze light overnight.


Looking at the upper-level setup, we find ourselves on the cooler side of the jet as an upper-level low works over the Great Lakes. In addition to this leading into a cold Thursday morning, this will keep us chilly once again for Thursday before the upper-level ridge out west starts to slide toward us for the weekend.


As for the overnight hours and Thursday morning, it doesn’t matter if you find yourself under a freeze warning or not. Everyone will drop back into the upper 20s with a light north breeze at 5-10 mph under mostly clear skies.


With the surface high overhead, we’ll hold on to mostly sunny skies and a light northerly breeze across much of the area. The same conditions that will lead us to a cold start for Thursday morning will lead to afternoon highs climbing back mainly into the middle 50s.


Although the high pressure will move on as we work through Thursday night and Friday morning, we’ll still have a light breeze and mostly clear skies in place. While we don’t have any frost advisories or freeze warnings out for Friday morning, it will be another cold start with lows dropping back into the lower to middle 30s.


After another cold start, the southerly wind will return on the backside of the high as skies stay mostly sunny once again. Combine that with the main jet stream returning overhead, that will allow mild temperatures to return as highs are expected to top out in the lower to middle 60s.


Looking at the jet setup on Friday below, you can see how the jet stream will stretch out over us and maintain its positioning for Saturday. Even with partly sunny skies for Saturday, we’ll start to see highs stay mild in the middle 60s across the region. We’ll also keep an eye on a weak upper-low that will cut across the southern side of the jet stream in the Desert Southwest.


Even though that wave will undercut the ridge that will really build in on Easter Sunday, we’ll hold on to partly sunny skies and see a slight chance for a few showers during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, the jet to our north signifies that we’ll have a mild Easter Sunday lined up for us.


A detailed breakdown of our Easter Sunday is still looking pretty good. Once again, a 20% chance for rain with that wave undercutting the ridge will lead to a few showers for a few spots during the afternoon. Otherwise, we’ll plan on partly sunny skies throughout the day. With a light southwest breeze in the morning, we’ll have lows starting out around 50. Even with the wind kicking into gear at 10-20 mph during the afternoon, we’ll be in the middle 60s by the noon hour with afternoon highs topping out around 70 across the area.


Once we get past Easter Sunday, we’ll watch for an upper-level low coming out of the Pacific Northwest to start digging across the western parts of the country. Along that resulting southwest flow of the jet stream over us and some returning moisture, we’ll watch for a slight chance for some isolated t-storms for Monday and Tuesday. With the main jet still to our north, this will result in highs in the middle 70s on Monday and highs pushing to 80° on Tuesday.


Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll keep a close eye on the upper-low out west wanting to work into the Central Plains for Wednesday and Thursday. Even though highs want to stay mild to warm for Wednesday and Thursday of next week, this wave wants to bring in a better chance for scattered t-storms across the region. We’ll also keep an eye out for a possible severe threat for both Wednesday and Thursday.


If you’re curious as to how we look for the rest of April, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.

Have a good night and a great Thursday!


April 8th-April 10th: We’ll stick with mild temperatures for Thursday and into the weekend. After dealing with t-storms and a severe threat for Thursday, we’ll stay dry for Friday and Saturday.

April 11th-April 17th: We’re looking at another kind of active week with slight t-storm chances Sunday, rain & t-storms for Monday, t-storms again on Wednesday, showers on Thursday, rain chances on Friday and slight rain chances on Saturday. We’ll be mild to start the week before a brief cool down for Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll stay rather cool for the rest of the week.

April 18th-April 24th: With the exception of some t-storm chances on Tuesday, we’re looking at mainly a quiet week. We’re mild to start the week before we warm back up for Thursday and to start the weekend out.

April 25th-May 1st: Several waves will be on the way for this week. We’ll watch for t-storms and a severe threat for our Sunday. After t-storm chances for Monday and Tuesday, we’ll watch for a severe threat with our t-storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll dry out for Friday and Saturday before we see another wave with a possible severe threat by that following Sunday, May 2nd. Sunday will be warm before we settle for a mild stretch from Monday through Friday. We’ll turn warm again on Saturday.