Latest updated blog – Back into the heat and humidity today – Nick
Staying that way for much of this week
Good Sunday morning, everyone. As much as I wish we had another band of rain and t-storms ready to work in this morning, I’m afraid our Sunday won’t be an exact repeat of yesterday. The weather setup below shows the front that brought us t-storms the other day to the north of us. T-storms out in MO and northwestern Kansas last night stayed close to the front and our area is dry this morning as a result.
With that front staying to the north and fading away as we work into this week, the upper levels still show the jet to the north. That will keep us hot and humid for today before we see an upper-level ridge begin to build for the week ahead of us.
With the south wind staying in place at 15-20 mph tonight (some gusts near 30 mph), that’s keeping everyone warm and muggy this morning. Even with partly cloudy skies in spots, everyone is starting around 75° this morning.
We’ll hold onto partly sunny skies for the day with no systems at the surface or waves upstairs to trigger any showers or t-storms. Despite that, we’ll have the summer heat working back in as highs climb back into the lower 90s.
Combine the returning 90s for today with dew points that will be back around 70° for the afternoon, it will feel hotter than what the thermometer will say during the day. After our warm and muggy start, we’ll have temperatures feeling like the upper 90s to near 100° during the peak heating of the day.
For the rest of the week, the main takeaway is an upper-level ridge that will definitely build in and maintain its presence across the area and a good portion of the US. Even with the ridge keeping us hot and humid for Monday, a wave wants to ride along the western edge of the ridge. That wants to bring some scattered t-storms in here for Monday and leave us with a few isolated t-storms on Tuesday.
Wednesday will be quiet under mostly sunny skies. However, Wednesday is looking like the hottest day of the week as we continue to sit under the ridge. Highs will press into the middle 90s for Wednesday afternoon with the humidity planning on making it feel like triple digits across the area.
For Thursday, we’ll be watching for an upper-level wave to develop to our northeast inside the ridge. If it can develop as forecast, we’ll have some isolated t-storms under partly sunny skies keeping us in the lower 90s for Thursday afternoon.
While we keep Friday mostly sunny to start the 4th of July Weekend out, the upper low wants to make another play in our forecast on the 4th. If it can work into central and eastern Missouri, that will bring in some scattered t-storms and partly sunny skies. In addition to that, that will temporarily push the jet to our southwest and send highs into the upper 80s.
Heading into next week, that weakness in the ridge will keep us warm to start before the heat returns by the end of the week. We’ll keep some t-storm chances in the forecast for Sunday and the second half of the week. For a look at the rest of July on the way, Doug has you covered with the long range forecast down below.
Have a great Sunday!
Long range forecast through July:
July 5th-11th: A warm start to the week with a hot finish. Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, then again Wednesday through Saturday. Just afternoon pop up storms.
July 12th-18th: Warm the first half of the week with hot temps settling in the second half of the week. Pop up storms Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances again by the weekend. Tropics we need to watch possible development near Florida.
July 19th-25th: Mainly a hot week with pop up isolated storms each and every day. We will watch the tropics near Cuba.
July 26th- August 1st: Again mainly a hot week with highs well into the 90s. Mainly a dry week as well with thunderstorm chances by the weekend. Tropics need to be watch this week in the Gulf.