Latest updated blog – Another day of rain chances lining up – Nick
Still keeping the summer heat away
Good Wednesday evening, everyone. We’re halfway through the work week and we spent our Wednesday under plenty of cloud cover once again to keep us warm with highs in the middle 80s. Since we kept the same front around with more upper-level energy working in, we saw scattered rain and t-storms return across the area. In Jopiln, the Airport picked up around half an inch from the rain and t-storms we saw today. While we are using this to play catch-up with rain chances that we’ve been longing for over the past several weeks, that puts us at 32.5″ for the year. That’s still running 5 inches above normal, but it’s less than where we were last year during one of our wettest years on record.
With our frontal system sticking around for Thursday and yet another upper-level wave ready to rotate across the Plains, we’ll keep rain chances in the forecast for our Thursday. Despite that, we’ll go from a mild start in the morning to another warm afternoon with highs back in the middle 80s.
Breaking down our weather setup, our stationary front lifted back to the north earlier today. However, a cold front is developing on the backside of this and stretching from Kansas through Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle. We also note that some severe t-storms were developing out across western Kansas this evening behind the developing cold front.
Those t-storms are actually being driven by another upper-level low that is working across South Dakota and Nebraska this evening. While this wave won’t bring any of the severe weather toward us out of western Kansas, this wave will be working in over the next few days. In the meantime, the low sent a bit of energy our way and fired off additional rain and t-storms across southeast Kansas.
That area of rain and t-storms will continue to move southeast through the rest of the evening and into the overnight. This batch of rain and t-storms won’t turn severe, but it will bring in another chance for moderate to heavy rainfall in spots as temperatures continue to slowly drop back into the middle 70 across the area by midnight.
Heading into Thursday morning, a couple showers and t-storms could be around as the AM drive gets going. Otherwise, we’ll all start mild under mostly cloudy skies with lows in the lower 70s.
Even with clouds sticking around during the day, we will have the usual pockets of sun peaking out ready to help us warm up once again. Heading into the afternoon, the front working together with the upper-level wave, the humidity and afternoon temperatures pushing back into the middle 80s, that will help spark additional scattered rain and t-storms across the area. The vast majority of these t-storms will stay below severe levels, but it will be another shot for moderate to heavy rain for parts of the area.
The front will move on to our southeast as we head into the weekend, but we’ll hold onto the upper-level wave as it works across the state of Missouri. With that being the case, we’ll hold onto scattered rain and t-storms for Friday morning as lows drop back into the upper 60s.
After the AM drive Friday, most of the morning should be relatively quiet before scattered t-storms pop back up for the afternoon. With a northerly wind kicking in behind the cold front, afternoon temperatures look pretty good with highs planning on topping out in the lower 80s.
With rain chances still in the forecast for Thursday through Saturday, we need to watch how much additional rain we could get. By Saturday afternoon, it’s possible for the area overall to see between half an inch to almost 2 inches. Locally heavier amounts are possible and dependent on where the heavier pockets of rain plan on setting up. We’ll keep an eye on these mounts as this could lead to some minor flooding concerns across parts of the area.
Despite rain chances sticking around for Saturday and Sunday with the upper-level low wandering around Missouri and Illinois, temperatures will remain warm with highs in the lower to middle 80s. As the new work week gets underway for Monday, the upper low will slowly start working into Illinois. As long as it keeps the northwest flow aloft in place, we’ll hold on to isolated t-storms chances for Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s.
After another day with isolated t-storms on Tuesday, the upper low will move on across the Great Lakes. Before the upper-level ridge in the Desert Southwest tries to build back in, we’ll stay warm with highs pushing back into the middle to some upper 80s.
By Thursday and heading into late next week, the upper-level ridge and the warmer side of the jet will start heading back in our direction. That will start to bring the summer heat back in for our first full weekend of August. For a look at how the month of August is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast below.
Have a good night and a great Thursday!
Long range forecast through August:
Next Thursday-Saturday: Heating back up for Thursday with another front trying to get in by Friday with thunderstorm chances.
August 9th-15th: Most of the week on the hot side with pop up storms from Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures back off just a bit for the weekend.
August 16th-22nd: A hot start, but most of the week warm with hot temperatures returning late in the week. Chances for scattered storms on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Saturday.
August 23rd-29th: A warm start to the week but most of the week on the hot side. Isolated storms on Sunday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.