Latest updated blog: Active stretch of the new Heady Pattern. -Doug
Active stretch of the new Heady Pattern. -Doug
Wow! What a difference a day makes. I hope you are ready for the weekend. It stinks it isn’t going to be the warmest or nicest of weekends, but it is the weekend. Can you believe we set a record high on Thursday? Then boom, the front hit.
It was over 40 degrees colder this afternoon which is crazy. Alright lets jump into the weekend, the next systems and the Heady Pattern. I think a lot of clouds will stick around on Saturday, so temperatures will struggle to warm up. However, we should get near or just above 50. If we can get a little sun, then a little warmer. If we stay all clouds, we will top around 48 degrees. Cold start. We do have a freeze warning, but I don’t think it really warrants a freeze warning. But, the NWS still issued one for us.
Clouds stick around again on Sunday, but I do think we should warm a little more into the mid to upper 50s.
Here is where it gets interesting. Colder air works back in again late Sunday. Showers start to develop by evening into the overnight hours. Temperatures start dropping back into the 40s and eventually into the upper 30s by morning.
Rain continues to increase across the region. This the rain we need and want. The pink is rain and sleet mixing in and the blue is actually snow. I know, it is October. As we work into the morning hours on Monday, our temperatures continue to drop into the mid 30s.
By the afternoon most of us will be sitting in the 30-35 degree range. This is still three days away, but as of now I would say our southern counties stay mainly rain. Along the I-44 corridor, we are looking at rain and sleet and possible ending with a little snow. Our northern half of the viewing area is looking at rain to sleet to snow. Now, the ground is still decently warm, but we can’t rule out some light accumulations with this system. I think just north of our region a few inches of snow could fall. This is something I will be closely watching through the weekend. Now right behind this, a second wave will affect us on Tuesday giving us a rain snow mix again. A weaker wave, but still chances.
Finally late next week we will start to warm back up. So what does all of this mean with the pattern? Remember, the Heady Pattern is a unique pattern that sets up each and every year from about August 10th through September 20th. In the pattern, we have a recurring cycle each and every year that can range from about 40 days to about 65 days. Last year we had a 58.5 day pattern. This year with La Nina influence, our cycle is shorter and not near as active. I have had the cycle length pretty much nailed down give or take a couple days for about the last 6 weeks. I am still fine tuning the exact length, but pretty sure I have it nailed down. This years pattern will be colder but not as active as the past two years. We will really struggle to get rain in here next summer, which stinks. However, for the winter and spring we will have very wide temperatures swings and about 3 or 4 big systems each cycle. Then we will have smaller systems in between of course. That means, severe weather season won’t be extremely active but the ones we have could be big ones. During the winter, we have the potential to see much bigger snows, we just won’t have a ton of systems during the winter months. I usually do my winter forecast about a week before Thanksgiving. So I will be getting that ready for you. Also, I am interested to see what this stretch of storm systems look like the next time around in December. Alright guys and gals, my long range forecast is below.
Halloween: Looks mild and breezy. We do have rain chances the day after Halloween and I am hoping they hold off until Sunday.
November 1st-7th: A cooler start with rain chances on Sunday and Monday. Mild temperatures the rest of the week with rain chances back in on Friday and Saturday.
November 8th-14th: A cool start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday. Staying cool into the middle of the week with mild temperatures returning. Rain chances on Friday with rain or snow chances by Saturday.
November 15th-21st: Mainly a cold to chilly week and mainly dry. Slight rain chances on Thursday.
November 22nd-28th: Back to mild for Thanksgiving week. However, rain chances Wednesday through Saturday.
November 29th-December 5th: Up and down temperatures all week with two storms systems. Rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Then again, rain chances back in for the weekend.
December 6th-12th: A cool start to the week, but warming up the middle of the week with rain chances. Much colder temperatures late in the week and into the weekend with most likely wintry weather chances.